월령단지 풍력발전 예보모형 개발에 관한 연구
A Study on Development of a Forecasting Model of Wind Power Generation for Walryong Site
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Abstract
In this paper, a forecasting model of wind speed at Walryong Site, Jeju Island is presented, which has been developed and evaluated as a first step toward establishing Korea Forecasting Model of Wind Power Generation. The forecasting model is constructed based on neural network and is trained with wind speed data observed at Gosan Weather Station located near by Walryong Site. Due to short period of measurements at Walryong Site for training statistical model, Gosan Weather Station's long-term data are substituted and then transplanted to Walryong Site by using Measure-Correlate-Predict technique. One to three-hour advance forecasting of wind speed show good agreements with the monitoring data of Walryong site with the correlation factors 0.96 and 0.88, respectively.Keywards : 풍력발전(Wind power generation), 예보모델(Forecasting model), 신경망회로(Neural network), 측정-상관-예측(Measure-Correlate-Predict)
참고문헌 (12)
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