남북관계와 미북관계의 갈등과 협력에 대한 경험적 연구: 탈냉전기 한ㆍ미의 역대 행정부를 중심으로
An Empirical Analysis of the Inter-Korean and the U.S.-North Korean Conflict-Cooperation Relations: Assessing the Role of Presidential Strategies during the Post-Cold War Era
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The purpose of this study is (1) to discriminate South Korea and the U.S. policy toward North Korea since the post-Cold War between the TFT and GRIT strategies, and (2) to empirically analyze successive government's policy effects on the cooperation-conflict variations. Especially, this study adopts a rare methodology using events data: The event data framework is a methodology that observes inter-state interactions in real-time and transforms the results into aggregated data sets on a monthly, yearly, or even daily basis. The events data analyses that applies the inter-Korean analysis in recent years are hardly found mainly due to the lack of proper data sets. The author collected and modified twenty-year data sets using halfcomputerized method. The study examines North Korea strategies of consecutive South Korean supreme policymakers―the Presidents, and empirically compared its effects on cooperations and conflicts. And also compares the U.S. Presidents' North Korea strategies and its effects. The main findings are: (1) South Korean GRIT strategy successfully guided North Korea's cooperation; yet failed to ease inter-Korean conflict level. (2) US strategies during the post-Cold War directly related North Korea's cooperation-conflict reactions. This suggests the US-South Korean government level firm cooperation can produce more cooperative North Korea's external policy.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is (1) to discriminate South Korea and the U.S. policy toward North Korea since the post-Cold War between the TFT and GRIT strategies, and (2) to empirically analyze successive government's policy effects on the cooperation-conflict variations. Especially, this study adopts a rare methodology using events data: The event data framework is a methodology that observes inter-state interactions in real-time and transforms the results into aggregated data sets on a monthly, yearly, or even daily basis. The events data analyses that applies the inter-Korean analysis in recent years are hardly found mainly due to the lack of proper data sets. The author collected and modified twenty-year data sets using halfcomputerized method. The study examines North Korea strategies of consecutive South Korean supreme policymakers―the Presidents, and empirically compared its effects on cooperations and conflicts. And also compares the U.S. Presidents' North Korea strategies and its effects. The main findings are: (1) South Korean GRIT strategy successfully guided North Korea's cooperation; yet failed to ease inter-Korean conflict level. (2) US strategies during the post-Cold War directly related North Korea's cooperation-conflict reactions. This suggests the US-South Korean government level firm cooperation can produce more cooperative North Korea's external policy.
참고문헌 (18)
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