18세기 후반~19세기 한성부 강우량과 수해의 상관관계 - 『승정원일기』의 측우기 기록과「한성부민가퇴압별단(漢城府民家頹壓別單)」의 활용

Abstract

This study analyzes the correlation between rainfall data and the data of collapsed houses affected by flood damage in Seoul from the late 18th to the 19th century. First, the data of rain gauge depth recorded in the Sŭngjŏngwŏn- ilgi (The Daily Records of Royal Secretariat of Joseon Dynasty) from 1770 to 1907 were organized into annual, monthly, daily, and hourly units. Key periods with high rainfall levels and related information were identified in each unit. Second, records from the ‘Reports on Collapsed Houses in Hansŏngbu [漢城府民家頹壓別單]’ from 1783 to 1893 were extracted from the Sŭngjŏngwŏn-ilgi and aggregated based on administrative districts and relief fund amount. Additionally, the numbers of collapsed houses were aggregated annually to identify general trends. Third, the correlation between annual rainfall and the scale of flood victims was examined using graphs and Pearson correlation coefficients. Years with particularly severe flood damage were analyzed further to explore variables beyond annual rainfall, identifying critical factors that exacerbated the impact. The study aimed to estimate the influence of rainfall and other social factors on flood occurrence and severity. Although a significant correlation between annual rainfall and the number of flood victims was found, it was necessary to consider other factors, such as monthly and daily rainfall, the torrential rains, administrative response, record accuracy, and population density near rivers. Moreover, the study highlighted that once natural disasters exceed a certain threshold, the resulting human damage does not increase linearly but exponentially, reaching extreme levels beyond expectations.