대원제국 시기 황하 이북의 기후변동과 기근 - 14세기 전반기 중서성 지역을 중심으로 -

Abstract

There is a typical expression, ‘the Crisis of the 14th Century’ in China, and it describes well how severe climate crisis not only East Asia but Eurasia experienced in those days.In the first half of the 14th century, Zhongshu Sheng (中書省) and Daedo (大都) were directly hit by climate change, and in the secondary crisis caused by the Great Famine and the outbreak of plague, these regions started losing their political functions as the governance center of Yuan.Throughout China, it was a little colder in the first half of the 14th century than the second half of the 13th century, and even the south region of the Yangtze River, which was supposed to be relatively warm, became cold in those days. Due to heavy snow in 1307, about 86,000 nomadic households left their nomadic areas in Karaforum and flocked to Daedo. It was such a heavy burden on the state that about 39% of the tax revenue had to be used to return them to where they were from. According to the History of Yuan Dynasty, there occurred 115 flood disasters in Zhongshu Sheng in the second half of the 13th century, and 290 ones in the first half of the 14th century.These flood disasters in Zhongshu Sheng mostly took place between June and August, resulting in serious damage to crops, which became a major factor of famine.Especially, in the first half of the 14th century, the flood over disaster intensity 2 occurred 120 times, causing more serious damages than the second half of the 13th century.Even before the 1340s, there occurred many flood disasters, but great food did not lead to cannibalism unlike the cases above. Besides, in the first half of the 14th century, a total of 368 drought disasters occurred in Zhongshu Sheng, which was about 6 times more than about 60 ones in the second half of the 13th century.Water and drought disasters in Zhongshu Sheng occurred the most in the 1320s, while famine occurred the most in the 1330s, which shows quite a gap between those kinds of disasters.Yet, starting from the 1340s, the intensity of disasters such as abnormal climate and famine became so strong that the state seemingly reached a stage where it failed to control disasters after all. In the face of a triple whammy combined with the accumulated natural disasters in the first half of the 14th century, the Great Famine and plague caused by the natural disasters, Daedo had already lost its central function of the empire.The irreversible crisis of the 14th century might be an important reason that Huizong, the last emperor of Yuan Dynasty, named Togon Temur, had to move the capital from Daedo to Xanadu in July, 1368.In other words, the capital transfer was possibly based on Togon Temur's determination that Zhongshu Sheng would be no longer a right place where national ruling acts could be conducted.