마그레브 제국 경제통합의 잠재력 분석과 통합 촉진 방안 모색
An Analysis of the Potential for the Economic Integration of Maghreb Countries and Some Suggestions for Promoting the Integration
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The main objective of this study is to assess the potential for economic integration among Maghreb countries and to suggest the strategy of integrating the economies of Maghreb countries. To analyse the potential for economic integration, we try to find out synchronous long-run movements in their GDPs and inflation rates and short-run business cycles in them, which mean they have common economic features to rationalize the economic integration. The methodologies used are augmented Dickey-Fuller to test the stationarity of a time series, cointegration analysis to test for the number of common trends in a set of time series, and Granger causality analysis to test for the common cycles. Empirical results suggest that all countries share the common long-term trends and three of them share common cycles. These two critical findings indicate the existence of macroeconomic interdependence among these countries which is important factor for the success of integration of the Maghreb economies. Even though at the end of 2010 Maghreb countries announced an agreement on the establishment of a Maghreb free trade zone for agricultural products that will take effect in 2011, economic integration in the Maghreb has been stalled since the establishment of AMU in 1989, mainly due to political tensions, mismanagement of economic policies, and poor infrastructure. In this paper, we suggest the basic strategy of integration and an array of cooperative measures that the United States and the European Union can pursue with the Maghreb countries to promote integration within the region and with the rest of the world. The basic strategy proposed is the sequential expansion of economic cooperation from bilateral cooperations between Maghreb countries to agricultural FTA and wider FTA. The cooperative measures include lowering or eliminating tariff barriers, coordinating rules of origin, improving business environments, and integrating the service markets. They can foster larger economic reforms in the region, which would greatly enhance the opportunity of economic development of these countries.
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to assess the potential for economic integration among Maghreb countries and to suggest the strategy of integrating the economies of Maghreb countries. To analyse the potential for economic integration, we try to find out synchronous long-run movements in their GDPs and inflation rates and short-run business cycles in them, which mean they have common economic features to rationalize the economic integration. The methodologies used are augmented Dickey-Fuller to test the stationarity of a time series, cointegration analysis to test for the number of common trends in a set of time series, and Granger causality analysis to test for the common cycles. Empirical results suggest that all countries share the common long-term trends and three of them share common cycles. These two critical findings indicate the existence of macroeconomic interdependence among these countries which is important factor for the success of integration of the Maghreb economies. Even though at the end of 2010 Maghreb countries announced an agreement on the establishment of a Maghreb free trade zone for agricultural products that will take effect in 2011, economic integration in the Maghreb has been stalled since the establishment of AMU in 1989, mainly due to political tensions, mismanagement of economic policies, and poor infrastructure. In this paper, we suggest the basic strategy of integration and an array of cooperative measures that the United States and the European Union can pursue with the Maghreb countries to promote integration within the region and with the rest of the world. The basic strategy proposed is the sequential expansion of economic cooperation from bilateral cooperations between Maghreb countries to agricultural FTA and wider FTA. The cooperative measures include lowering or eliminating tariff barriers, coordinating rules of origin, improving business environments, and integrating the service markets. They can foster larger economic reforms in the region, which would greatly enhance the opportunity of economic development of these countries.
참고문헌 (29)
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