딥러닝을 이용한 비트코인 투자전략의 성과 분석
Performance Analysis of Bitcoin Investment Strategy using Deep Learning
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초록
최근 암호화폐거래소로 투자자들이 몰리면서 비트코인 가격이 급등락하고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 딥러닝 모형을 이용하여 비트코인의 가격을 예측하고, 투자전략을 통해 비트코인의 수익성이 있는지를 분석하는 것이다. 비선형성과 장기기억 특성을 보이는 비트코인 가격 예측모형으로는 LSTM을 활용하며, 예측 가격을 입력변수로 하는 이동평균선 교차전략의 수익성을 분석하였다. 2013년부터 2021년까지의 LSTM 예측 가격을 이용한 비트코인 이동평균선 교차전략의 투자 성과는 단순 시장가격을 이용한 이동평균선 교차전략과 벤치마크전략 Buy & Hold 보다 각각 5.5%와 46% 이상의 수익률 개선 효과를 보여주었다. 최근 데이터까지 확장하여 분석한 본 연구의 결과는 기존의 연구들과 마찬가지로 암호화폐 시장의 비효율성(inefficiency)을 지지하고 있으며, 비트코인 투자자들에게는 딥러닝 모형을 이용한 투자전략의 실전 활용 가능성을 보여주었다. 향후 연구에서는 다양한 딥러닝 모형들의 성과 비교를 통해 최적의 예측모형을 개발하고 비트코인 투자전략의 수익성을 개선할 필요가 있다.
Abstract
Bitcoin prices have been soaring recently as investors flock to cryptocurrency exchanges. The purpose of this study is to predict the Bitcoin price using a deep learning model and analyze whether Bitcoin is profitable through investment strategy. LSTM is utilized as Bitcoin prediction model with nonlinearity and long-term memory and the profitability of MA cross-over strategy with predicted prices as input variables is analyzed. Investment performance of Bitcoin strategy using LSTM forecast prices from 2013 to 2021 showed return improvement of 5.5% and 46% more than market price MA cross-over strategy and benchmark Buy & Hold strategy, respectively. The results of this study, which expanded to recent data, supported the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market, as did previous studies, and showed the feasibility of using the deep learning model for Bitcoin investors. In future research, it is necessary to develop optimal prediction models and improve the profitability of Bitcoin investment strategies through performance comparison of various deep learning models.
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