Oil and Gas Markets in the Middle East and Its Security Implications
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Global oil and gas markets are forecast to change significantly over the next 25 years, affecting the economies of the Middle East. This paper uses Buzan and Wæver’s regional security complex framework as a framework to analyze the effect of changes on Gulf security at the domestic, state-to-state, inter-regional, and global levels. It predicts that the power relationships and patterns of enmity and amity within the Gulf security sub-complex will not be significantly changed. At the global level, however, the rise in Indian and particularly Chinese interdependence with the Gulf will diminish the effectiveness of the USA’s penetration of the region. Most significantly, the collapse of Bahrain’s and Oman’s incomes will result in significant threats to, and possibly violent uprisings against, their ruling regimes.
Abstract
Global oil and gas markets are forecast to change significantly over the next 25 years, affecting the economies of the Middle East. This paper uses Buzan and Wæver’s regional security complex framework as a framework to analyze the effect of changes on Gulf security at the domestic, state-to-state, inter-regional, and global levels. It predicts that the power relationships and patterns of enmity and amity within the Gulf security sub-complex will not be significantly changed. At the global level, however, the rise in Indian and particularly Chinese interdependence with the Gulf will diminish the effectiveness of the USA’s penetration of the region. Most significantly, the collapse of Bahrain’s and Oman’s incomes will result in significant threats to, and possibly violent uprisings against, their ruling regimes.
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