비정상성 기반 SPIt를 이용한 가뭄의 시⋅공간적 특성 분석
An Analysis of Spatio-temporal Characterisrice of Drought Using Non-stationary Time Dependent-standardized Precipitation
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초록
기상학적 가뭄지수 분석에 자주 이용되는 SPI지수는 정상성 기반 즉 시계열의 확률적인 성질들이시간의 흐름에 따라 변하지 않는 정상성 기반으로 분석이 진행된다. 이는 기후변화와 기후변동 같은시간이 지남에 따라 변화하는 정보를 충분히 반영하기에 한계가 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기존의정상성 가정에 근거한 SPI 지수 산정과는 다른 비정상성(Non-stationarity)을 고려할 수 있는 새로운빈도분석 방법인 SPIt를 사용하고자 한다. 먼저 일 강수자료를 이용하여 7일 지속기간의 강수 시계열을 구축하였다. 가뭄지속기간은 월단위와 주단위를 기준으로 3개월의 SPI와 SPIt를 계산하고 과거긴급제한급수지역을 대상으로 각 지수의 재현성를 확인하였다. 또한 전국 기상관측소를 기준으로SPI지수와 SPIt지수를 산정하고 공간분포도를 작성하여 공간적인 재현성을 확인하였다.
Abstract
The SPI index was developed based on the fact that when drought occurs when reduced precipitation causes water shortage relative to the required water demand. However, the SPI index works under the assumption of stationarity or normality in which the probabilistic properties of the time series data do not change over time. It has limitations in reflecting information changing over time sufficiently, such as climate change. In this study, we used SPIt, a new frequency analysis method considering non-stationarity, which is different from the existing SPI index calculation. We first used daily precipitation data to construct the time series data of 7-day precipitation. For the duration of drought, both SPI and SPIt indices for 3 months were calculated on a monthly and weekly basis, and the reproducibility of each index was assessed for the areas experiencing restricted water supply. In addition, both indices were calculated for all national meteorological stations in South Korea, which was used to create a spatial distribution map and confirm their spatial reproducibility.
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