지진 조기경보 시스템 고도화에 대한 지불의사금액 추정
Estimation of Willingness-to-pay for Enhanced Earthquake Early Warning System
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본 연구에서는 지진조기경보시스템(Earthquake Early Warning System, EEWS) 고도화에 대한 지불의사금액을 추정하였다. 2016년 경주, 2017년 포항에서처럼 큰 피해를 수반하는 대규모 지진이 발생하는 등우리나라도 지진 발생 피해에 대한 대비가 필요한 시점이 도래했다. 지진 발생에 대한 경보가 전달되는시간이 단축될수록 지진에 대한 대피 시간 확보에 이점이 있으므로 지진 조기경보 시스템의 활용은지진피해를 최소화를 위한 중요한 대비정책이다. 본 논문에서 조건부가치평가법(CVM)을 활용하여EEWS 고도화에 대한 지불의사 금액을 추정한 결과 지진의 경험 여부 및 답변자가 지진조기경보시스템을 유효한 지진대비책으로 생각하고 있는지 등이 지불의사액에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 주요변수로 나타났으며, 국내 EEWS 고도화를 위한 지불의사금액 총액은 약 1조 2,000억 원 수준으로 추정되었다. 본 연구에서 추정한 EEWS 고도화에 대한 편익 규모는 지진재난의 피해 예방관련 정책 수립에있어서 중요한 정보를 제공하는데 의의가 있다고 할 수 있다.
Abstract
This study estimated the willingness to pay (WTP) to enhance an earthquake early warning system (EEWS). Korea's need to prepare for earthquake damage, such as large-scale earthquakes accompanied by significant damage that affected Gyeongju in 2016 and Pohang in 2017, has come. The faster an earthquake warning is delivered, the more advantageous it is to secure an evacuation time; thus, an EEWS is a vital preparedness policy to minimize earthquake damage. As a result of estimating the WTP for the enhanced EEWS using the contingent valuation method (CVM) in this paper, whether the respondent has experienced an earthquake and considered the EEWS an effective earthquake preparedness countermeasure statistically affects their WTP. It was a primary variable with a significant impact, and the total WTP for enhanced domestic EEWS was estimated at about KRW 1.2 trillion. The scale of benefits of enhanced EEWS evaluated in this study can provide important information in establishing policies related to earthquake disaster-related damage prevention.
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