영향한계강우량을 고려한 삼척시 호우특보 기준에 관한 연구
The Study of Samcheok City's Heavy Rain Warning Criteria Considering Threshold Rainfall
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초록
호우는 시공간적 변동성이 크고, 발생 시간이 짧아 많은 인명 및 재산피해를 유발한다. 그러나 호우특보기준은 하나의 특보 기준값으로 지역 특성을 반영하지 않고 있다. 삼척시는 태백산맥과 동해 사이에위치한 고지대 산간 지역으로 지역에 따라 기상 차이가 있다. 이에 본 연구는 호우재해의 획일적 의사결정 시스템을 보완하고자 영향한계강우량을 고려한 삼척시 호우특보 기준을 연구하여 제안하고자 한다. 삼척시 내 특보구역별 영향한계강우량 격자를 추출한 후 기본통곗값을 분석하여 특보구역별 호우특보기준을 관심, 주의, 경고, 위험 4단계로 선정하였다. 그리고 이를 5가지 과거 강우사상에 적용하여 적용성을 검토하였다. 그 결과 본 연구는 강우사상에 따라 변화하는 예상 위험 정도를 특보구역별로 가시성있게 예보하였으며, 기상청 호우특보 미발령을 관심ㆍ주의 단계, 주의보ㆍ경보를 경고ㆍ위험 단계 수준으로 판별하였다. 본 연구 결과는 호우재해 대응 골든타임을 더 확보하고, 효율적인 호우재해 대책을마련할 수 있을 것으로 판단되어 활용성이 있다고 기대된다.
Abstract
Heavy rain has a short duration of occurrence, causing many casualties and property damage. However, the heavy rain warning criteria are a single warning criterion that does not reflect local characteristics. Therefore, this study aims to study and propose heavy rain warning criteria for Samcheok City that consider the threshold rainfall to supplement the uniform decision-making system for heavy rain disasters. By analyzing the basic statistical values of the threshold rainfall grid for each advisory area in Samcheok City, the criteria for heavy rain warning for each advisory area were selected in four levels, and the applicability was examined by applying it to past rainfall events. As a result, this study visibly forecasted the expected risk level that changes depending on the rainfall event by advisory area, and categorized the advisories and warnings of heavy rain warning from the KMA were categorized into Warning and Danger levels. The results of this study are expected to be useful in securing more golden time for responding to heavy rain disasters and preparing efficient measures against heavy rain disasters.
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