노후 댐의 안전 및 유지관리 개선을 위한 신뢰성 평가 기법
Reliability Evaluation Techniques for Improving the Safety and Maintenance of Aging Dams
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초록
기후변화, 이상기후 등 환경 변화로 인한 댐 붕괴 위험성이 높아지고 있다. 이에 따라 국내외 대형 수공구조물의 노후화에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 국제 댐 안전관리 규제 방향과 구조물의 잠재 위험도를 추정하기 위한 안정성 해석방법론의 필요성이 대두되고 있으며, 이에 본 연구에서는 Bayesian 기법을 활용한 확률론적 안전성 평가 모형을 제시하였다. 노후화 평가 방법으로는 정상성(stationarity) 및 비정상성(nonstationarity)에 따른 이항분포(binomial distribution)와 포아송 분포(Poisson distribution)를 기반의 해석 방법을 개발하였다. 또한, 자료 변동성을 반영한 사전 정보를 활용하여 위험확률을 산정하는 모형(population variability model)으로 확장하여 분석을 수행하였다. 본 노후화 평가 모형은 댐의 노후도를 정량화함으로써 잔여 수명과 최적 보수 시기 등을 판단할 수 있는 근거를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.
Abstract
The risk of dam failure is increasing due to environmental changes such as climate change and extreme weather events. As a result, there is growing interest in the aging of large hydraulic structures both domestically and internationally. The need for stability analysis methodologies to estimate the potential risks of these structures, along with international regulatory directions on dam safety management, has become evident. This study proposes a probabilistic safety evaluation model using Bayesian techniques. Analytical methods based on the binomial distribution and Poisson distribution were developed for aging assessment under both stationarity and nonstationarity conditions. Furthermore, the analysis was extended to include a population variability model that incorporates prior information reflecting data variability to calculate risk probabilities. The proposed aging evaluation model is expected to provide a basis for quantifying the aging of dams, thereby enabling the determination of remaining service life and the optimal timing for maintenance and repair.
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