석유시장 구조의 국제정치역학 연계성 : 2015년 유가변동의 요인 분석

Abstract

This paper is focused on the recent decline in oil prices in linkage with international political and economic clout to maintain hegemony over the current situation on the oil-for-arms as strategies. Global markets remained oversupplied by the end of 2014. The international oil prices have fallen low enough to press OPEC’s rivals into cutting sufficiently and increasingly efficient shale that producers could restore output in North America. Saudi Arabia within OPEC has sought to allow prices falling to curb U.S. and other non-OPEC output that is based on the dynamics and future outlook of the market for oil. A recovery in oil prices is hard to expect when there is a supply glut, while demand cannot be caught up in near future. And it expects a lower new normal for prices and oil has further downside risk. The actual situation in oil market can be described as fighting for market share. The real story is the shale revolution and the fact that Saudi Arabia refuses to be the one to make the cut to support prices. And oil producing country is fighting for market share this time. The market’s oversupply is not an issue that could be solved in the short term being affected by Gulf security. This paper is focusing on the regional security complex framework within global hegemony for the analysis which is divided into multi levels: domestic; intraregional; interregional; global. In the conclusion, the security interdependencies within each level were deeper and more diverse than those across the complex as a whole. And Korea's future energy resources management should be rechecked on their direction.