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중동의 사회경제적 뉴노멀과 정치 불안정성 심화

Socio-economic New Normals and Deteriorating Political Instability in the Middle East

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초록

Amid the continued spread of the new coronavirus, oil prices have plummeted in early 2020, raising a sense of socioeconomic crisis. While the virus is spreading around the world and in the region, countries in the Middle East are making various efforts to prevent quarantine and spread of the virus. However, the socioeconomic crisis in the region is expected to cause serious political instability if the economic power of oil-producing countries gradually worsens due to the plunge in oil prices. Therefore, this paper diagnosed how spread of Corona 19 and plunge in oil prices as socio-economic new normals in 2020 would affect major political instability factors in the Middle East. This research mainly focused on identifying causal relationships among the following variables: the spread of coronavirus and falling oil prices as socioeconomic independent variables; economic downturn and rise of unemployment as intervening variables; deteriorating political instability represented by sectarian and regional conflicts and terrorist threats from IS as dependent variables.

Abstract

Amid the continued spread of the new coronavirus, oil prices have plummeted in early 2020, raising a sense of socioeconomic crisis. While the virus is spreading around the world and in the region, countries in the Middle East are making various efforts to prevent quarantine and spread of the virus. However, the socioeconomic crisis in the region is expected to cause serious political instability if the economic power of oil-producing countries gradually worsens due to the plunge in oil prices. Therefore, this paper diagnosed how spread of Corona 19 and plunge in oil prices as socio-economic new normals in 2020 would affect major political instability factors in the Middle East. This research mainly focused on identifying causal relationships among the following variables: the spread of coronavirus and falling oil prices as socioeconomic independent variables; economic downturn and rise of unemployment as intervening variables; deteriorating political instability represented by sectarian and regional conflicts and terrorist threats from IS as dependent variables.

참고문헌 (45)

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