Re-examining Projections for Lost and Recovered Inbound Tourism: Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea
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초록
There is a scarcity of research examining travel demand forecasting under the assumption of a prolonged pandemic impact. Namely, estimations of travel demand loss are predominantly anchored to 2019 levels rather than the potential travel demand expected in the past three years. Consequently, it is vital to reassess whether (1) the pandemic impact is transient and demand will return to the supposed forecasting trajectory, or (2) the pandemic has permanently altered the forecasting trajectory for travel demand, thus creating a new demand trajectory. Accordingly, this study had two aims: (1) to forecast the timeline for recovery of inbound tourism demand toward presumed forecast demand levels instead of using 2019 demand levels as a benchmark, and (2) to longitudinally estimate the loss of inbound tourism demand compared to the presumed forecasting trajectory that was expected prior to the pandemic disruption.
Abstract
There is a scarcity of research examining travel demand forecasting under the assumption of a prolonged pandemic impact. Namely, estimations of travel demand loss are predominantly anchored to 2019 levels rather than the potential travel demand expected in the past three years. Consequently, it is vital to reassess whether (1) the pandemic impact is transient and demand will return to the supposed forecasting trajectory, or (2) the pandemic has permanently altered the forecasting trajectory for travel demand, thus creating a new demand trajectory. Accordingly, this study had two aims: (1) to forecast the timeline for recovery of inbound tourism demand toward presumed forecast demand levels instead of using 2019 demand levels as a benchmark, and (2) to longitudinally estimate the loss of inbound tourism demand compared to the presumed forecasting trajectory that was expected prior to the pandemic disruption.
참고문헌 (16)
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