본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

Modelling spatio-temporal patterns of Chinese foreign direct investment under the Belt and Road Initiative

이준엽|Chhetri Prem|Ardianto Rifan|Oktriana Bonita|Lee Paul Tae-Woo
정석물류통상연구원 (Jungseok Research Institute of International Logistics and Trade)|2023.12|Journal of International Logistics and Trade|제21권 제4호|pp. 220-254|DOI 10.1108/JILT-03-2023-0019

1

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

Belt and RoadInitiative(BRI)FDI stockFDI FlowGeographically and temporally weighted regression

초록

This paper aims to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) since the inception of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 as an extended version of geographically weighted regression.The panel data are used to examine spatial and temporal dynamics of the magnitude and the direction of China's outward FDI stock and its flow from 2011 to 2015 at a country level. Using the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), spatio-temporal distribution of FDI is explained through Logistic Performance Index, the size of gross domestic product (GDP), Shipping Linear Connectivity Index and Container Port Throughput.A comparative analysis between participating and non-participating countries in the BRI shows that the size of GDP and Container Port Throughput of the participating countries have a positive effect on the increases of China's outward FDI Stock to Asia especially after 2013, while non-participating countries, such as North America, Western Europe and Western Africa, have no significant effect on it before and after the implementation of the BRI.The findings, however, will not necessarily provide insight into the needs of China's outward FDI in certain countries to develop their economy. The findings provide the evidence to inform policy making to help identify the winners and losers of the investment, scale and direction of investment and the key drivers that shape the distributive investment patterns globally.The study provides the empirical evidence to inform investment policy and strategic realignment by quantifying scale, direction and drivers that shape the spatio-temporal shifts of China's FDI.The analysis also guides the Chinese government improve bilateral trade, build infrastructure and business partnerships with preferential countries participating in the BRI.There is an urgent need to adopt a new perspective to unfold the spatial temporal complexity of FDI that incorporates space and time dependencies, and the drivers of the situated context to model their effects on FDI. The model is based on GTWR and an extended geographically weighted regression (GWR) allowing the simultaneous analysis of spatial and temporal decencies of exploratory variables.

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) since the inception of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 as an extended version of geographically weighted regression.The panel data are used to examine spatial and temporal dynamics of the magnitude and the direction of China's outward FDI stock and its flow from 2011 to 2015 at a country level. Using the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), spatio-temporal distribution of FDI is explained through Logistic Performance Index, the size of gross domestic product (GDP), Shipping Linear Connectivity Index and Container Port Throughput.A comparative analysis between participating and non-participating countries in the BRI shows that the size of GDP and Container Port Throughput of the participating countries have a positive effect on the increases of China's outward FDI Stock to Asia especially after 2013, while non-participating countries, such as North America, Western Europe and Western Africa, have no significant effect on it before and after the implementation of the BRI.The findings, however, will not necessarily provide insight into the needs of China's outward FDI in certain countries to develop their economy. The findings provide the evidence to inform policy making to help identify the winners and losers of the investment, scale and direction of investment and the key drivers that shape the distributive investment patterns globally.The study provides the empirical evidence to inform investment policy and strategic realignment by quantifying scale, direction and drivers that shape the spatio-temporal shifts of China's FDI.The analysis also guides the Chinese government improve bilateral trade, build infrastructure and business partnerships with preferential countries participating in the BRI.There is an urgent need to adopt a new perspective to unfold the spatial temporal complexity of FDI that incorporates space and time dependencies, and the drivers of the situated context to model their effects on FDI. The model is based on GTWR and an extended geographically weighted regression (GWR) allowing the simultaneous analysis of spatial and temporal decencies of exploratory variables.

참고문헌 (66)

  1. Adhikary, B. K., "FDI, trade openness, capital formation, and economic growth in Bangladesh : a linkage analysis", International Journal of Business and Management, 6, pp.16~ (2011)
  2. Agbloyor, E. K., "Exploring the causality links between financial markets and foreign direct investment in Africa", Research in International Business and Finance, 28, pp.118~134 (2013)
  3. Agbloyor, E. K., "Private capital flows and economic growth in Africa : the role of domestic financial markets", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 30, pp.137~152 (2014)
  4. Alfaro, L., "FDI and economic growth : the role of local financial markets", Journal of International Economics, 64, pp.89~112 (2004)
  5. Ang, J. B., "Determinants of foreign direct investment in Malaysia", Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, pp.185~189 (2008)
  6. Bekhet, H. A., "Determinants of Jordanian foreign direct investment inflows : bounds testing approach", Economic Modelling, 46, pp.27~35 (2015)
  7. Beugelsdijk, S., "Why and how FDI stocks are a biased measure of MNE affiliate activity", Journal of International Business Studies, 41, pp.1444~1459 (2010)
  8. Beysenbaev Ruslan, "Proposals for improving the Logistics Performance Index", The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 36(1), pp.34~42 (2020), 한국해운물류학회[DOI]
  9. Blonigen, B. A., "Determinants of foreign direct investment", Canadian Journal of Economics, 2014, pp.47, 775~812
  10. Boateng, A., "Examining the determinants of inward FDI : evidence from Norway", Economic Modelling, 47, pp.118~127 (2015)
  11. Chakraborty, C., "Foreign direct investment and growth in India : a cointegration approach", Applied Economics, 34, pp.1061~1073 (2002)
  12. Chaplyuk, V. Z., "Geo-Economy of the Future: Sustainable Agriculture and Alternative Energy", pp.285~295 (2022), Springer
  13. 조혁수, "The Competitiveness of Korea’s Container Ports in the World:The Effect of Port Networks and Trade Environment", Journal of Korea Trade, 19(4), pp.95~116 (2015), 한국무역학회
  14. Chee-Keong Choong, "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia: A Revisit", Global Economic Review, 39(2), pp.175~195 (2010), 동서문제연구원
  15. Foreign Direct Investment in China: A Spatial Econometric Study, "Coughlin, C. C.", Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, ~ (1999)
  16. Coughlin, C. C., "Foreign direct investment in China : a spatial econometric study", World Economy, 23, pp.1~23 (2000)
  17. Ellyne, M., "China’s success attracting FDI and lessons for South Africa", Paper presented at the Biennial Conference of the Economic Society of South Africa (2017)
  18. Erdogan, M., "Determinants of foreign direct investments : dynamic panel data evidence", International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7, pp.82~ (2015)
  19. Forte, R., "A cluster analysis of FDI in Latin America", Latin American Journal of Economics, 52, pp.25~56 (2015)
  20. Fotheringham, A. S., "Two techniques for exploring nonstationarity in geographical data", Geographical Systems, 4, pp.59~82 (1997)
  21. Fotheringham, A. S., "Geographically weighted regression : a natural evolution of the expansion method for spatial data analysis", Environment and Planning A, 30, pp.1905~1927 (1998)
  22. Fotheringham, A. S., "Geographically Weighted Regression" (2003), John Wiley & Sons
  23. Fotheringham, A. S., "Geographical and temporal weighted regression(GTWR)", Geographical Analysis, 47, pp.431~452 (2015)
  24. Fujii, E., "What does trade openness measure?", Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 81, pp.868~888 (2019)
  25. Heng, K., "Cambodia and China’s Belt and Road Initiative : opportunities, challenges and future directions", UC Occasional Paper Series, 1, pp.1~18 (2017)
  26. Ingale, K., "Time series ARIMA forecasting of FDI inflow in India", The Pharma Innovation Journal, 12, pp.2454~2456 (2023)
  27. Jafarnejad, A., "Determinants of foreign direct investment in Iran: an empirical study using structural equation modelling", Paper presented at the Middle East FORUM (2009)
  28. Kalotay, K., "Modelling Russian outward FDI", Journal of International Management, 16, pp.131~142 (2010)
  29. Khadaroo, A., "Transport infrastructure and foreign direct investment", Journal of International Development: The Journal of the Development Studies Association, 22, pp.103~123 (2010)
  30. Khan, S. A. R., "Environmental logistics performance indicators affecting per capita income and sectoral growth : evidence from a panel of selected global ranked logistics countries", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24, pp.1518~1531 (2017)
  31. Kim, W. S., "Is the source of FDI important to emerging market economies? Evidence from Japanese and US FDI", Multinational Finance Journal, 7, pp.107~130 (2003)
  32. Ledyaeva, S., "Spatial econometric analysis of foreign direct investment determinants in Russian regions", World Economy, 32, pp.643~666 (2009)
  33. Lee, P. T. -W., "Research trends and agenda on the Belt and Road(B&R)initiative with a focus on maritime transport", Maritime Policy and Management, 45, pp.282~300 (2018)
  34. Lee, P. T. -W., "Strategic locations for logistics distribution centers along the Belt and Road : explorative analysis and research agenda", Transport Policy, 116, pp.24~47 (2022)
  35. Li, K. X., "Logistics as a driving force for development under the Belt and Road Initiative–the Chinese model for developing countries", Transport Reviews, 38, pp.457~478 (2018)
  36. Liang, R., "Port infrastructure connectivity, logistics performance and Seaborne trade on economic growth: an empirical analysis on “21st-century maritime silk road”", Journal of Coastal Research, 106, pp.319~324 (2020)
  37. Medda, F., "The port attractiveness index : application on African ports", Region et Developpement, 41, pp.47~82 (2015)
  38. Mugableh, M. I., "Time series analysis of inward foreign direct investment function in Malaysia", Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 172, pp.679~685 (2015)
  39. Naibaho, J. P., "Risk analysis of optimization of FDI in Indonesia evidence of cointegration modeling and ECM", Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, 2, pp.2151~2162 (2022)
  40. Narantuya, C., "Economic Dependence of Mongolia on Minerals: Consequences and Policies", pp.53~92 (2022), Springer
  41. Naude, W. A., "Investigating geography and institutions as determinants of foreign direct investment in Africa using panel data", Applied Economics, 39, pp.1223~1233 (2007)
  42. Negara, S. D., "The role of connectivity for accelerating ASEAN–India economic integration", Review of Indonesian Economic and Business Studies, 3, pp.63~82 (2012)
  43. Nguyen, A. -T., "Openness to trade, foreign direct investment, and economic growth in Vietnam", Applied Economics, 54, pp.3373~3391 (2022)
  44. OECD, "OECD International Direct Investment Statistics 2019" (2020), OECD Publishing
  45. "FDI in figure 2023" (2023)[URL]
  46. Palit, A., "India’s economic and strategic perceptions of China’s maritime silk road initiative", Geopolitics, 22, pp.292~309 (2017)
  47. Supply chain connectivity: enhancing participation in the global supply chain, "Patalinghug, E. E.", Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), ~, pp.Vol. 2015-14 (2015)
  48. Pekarskiene, I., "Features of foreign direct investment in the context of globalization", Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 213, pp.204~210 (2015)
  49. Raza, S. A., "Foreign capital inflows, economic growth and stock market capitalization in Asian countries : an ARDL bound testing approach", Quality and Quantity, 48, pp.375~385 (2014)
  50. Rodriguez, X. A., "Determinants of foreign direct investment in Spain", Applied Economics, 40, pp.2443~2450 (2008)
  51. Sen, A., "The impact of foreign direct investment inflows on the performance of economic growth : evidence from selected developing countries", Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 48, pp.1~16 (2014)
  52. Singhania, M., "Determinants of foreign direct investment in India", Journal of International Trade Law and Policy, 10, pp.64~82 (2011)
  53. Sohail, H. M., "Nexus among foreign direct investment, domestic investment, financial development and economic growth : a NARDL approach in Pakistan", International Journal of Economics Business Research, 25, pp.249~269 (2023)
  54. Tang, C. F., "The determinants of foreign direct investment in Malaysia : a case for electrical and electronic industry", Economic Modelling, 43, pp.287~292 (2014)
  55. Tsagkanos, A., "Foreign direct investment and stock market development : evidence from a ‘new’ emerging market", Journal of Economic Studies, 46, pp.55~70 (2019)
  56. Unver, M., "The impact of infrastructure on FDI inflows: a panel data analysis", Paper presented at the 2nd International Osmaneli Social Sciences Congress (2016)
  57. Ure, S., "Relationship between international trade and logistics : an evaluation on countries of Shanghai Pact and the Belt and Road Initiative", Intelligent Management Decision, 2, pp.30~37 (2023)
  58. Vadlamannati, K. C., "Determinants of foreign direct investment and volatility in South East Asian economies", Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 14, pp.246~261 (2009)
  59. Wallace, R., "Urban fire as an unstabilized parasite: the 1976-1978 outbreak in Bushwick, Brooklyn", Environment and Planning A, 15, pp.207~226 (1983)[DOI]
  60. Wrenn, D. H., "Geographically and temporally weighted likelihood regression : exploring the spatiotemporal determinants of land use change", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 44, pp.60~74 (2014)
  61. Yang, W., "A review of objectives and motivations of the Belt and Road Initiative", International Journal of Humanities Social Science and Management, 2, pp.409~412 (2022)
  62. Yeyati, E. L., "The cyclical nature of North–South FDI flows", Journal of International Money Finance, 26, pp.104~130 (2007)
  63. Yimer, A., "The effects of FDI on economic growth in Africa", The Journal of International Trade Economic Development, 32, pp.2~36 (2023)
  64. Zhang, X., "The determinants of China’s outward foreign direct investment", Emerging Markets Review, 12, pp.389~398 (2011)
  65. Zhao, S. X., "Spatial polarization and dynamic pathways of foreign direct investment in China 1990-2009", Geoforum, 43, pp.836~850 (1990)[DOI]
  66. Zou, L., "What is the rationale behind China’s infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative", Journal of Economic Surveys, 36, pp.605~633 (2022)

관련 논문AI추천

One Belt and One Road Policy of China and its impact on FDI of Participating Countries조소한국국회학회 · 한국과 세계2025 · 제7권 제3호Financial Integration in the BRI Context: Institutional Development and Debt Exposure Effects on FDIDimitrios Karkanis, Marie-Noëlle Duquenne경제연구소 · Journal of Economic Development2025 · 제50권 제2호Effect of China’s Outward Foreign Investment in ‘Belt and Road Countries’ on Domestic Problems: Focusing on Overcapacity and Inter-regional DisparityTakuma Kobayashi한국비교경제학회 · 비교경제연구2019 · 제26권 제2호Impact of China's belt and road initiative on logistics management in Africa: a bibliometric analysisLuke Rose, Mageto Joash정석물류통상연구원 · Journal of International Logistics and Trade2023 · 제21권 제4호Evaluating Performance and Efficiency of Logistics in Chinese Provinces and Cities along the Belt and Road Initiative왕관, 안승범한국로지스틱스학회 · 로지스틱스연구2020 · 제28권 제3호The Effect of Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment o n Regional Innovation Performance: Evidence from ChinaQuanlin Li, Sae Woon Park, Sunhae Lee사람과세계경영학회 · Global Business and Finance Review2020 · 제25권 제1호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (3건)

Editorial: Belt and Road Initiative in the African context: questions on regional connectivity and inclusive developmentChhetri Prem, Ombati Thomas, Shahrom Melissa, Tsui Kan, Saeed Naimapp. 198-203Impact of China's belt and road initiative on logistics management in Africa: a bibliometric analysisLuke Rose, Mageto Joashpp. 204-219Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese ports박민영, 상복림, TENG XIYUEpp. 255-272
원문 보기