경남지역 대나무 숲의 입목밀도 및 고사량 추정
Estimation of Standing Tree Density and Mortality for Bamboo Forests in Gyeongnam District
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본 연구는 경남지역의 대나무 숲(솜대 및 왕대)에 대한 입목밀도, 신죽 발생량 및 고사량 등을 추정하기 위하여 수행되었다. 입목밀도와 신죽발생량 분석을 위한 표준지 수는 299개소 였으며, 고사량 분석을 위한 표준지 수는 255개소 였다. 분석을 위한 추정식은 역다항식, 지수식, 비선형식,회귀식 등을 다양하게 적용하였으며, 이들의 검정은 적합도지수를 이용하였고, 잔차 검정을 실시하였다. 신죽의 발생량 추정식은 1차 역다항식이최적인 것으로 나타났으며, 적합도 지수는 0.2622로 나타났다. 현존 입목죽 추정을 위한 최적식은 지수함수식이었으며, 적합도 지수는 0.1963으로낮게 나타났다. 그리고 고사량 추정식은 현존 입목죽 본수와 신죽 본수를 설명변수로 하는 회귀식으로 도출되었으며, 결정계수는 0.4996인 것으로나타났다. 이들 식을 경남지역으로 확산시키면, 경남지역 대나무 숲의 연간 평균 입목밀도는 19,309본/ha, 고사량은 1,706본/ha이 될 것으로 추정되었다. 신죽 발생량 및 현존 입목죽 발생량 추정식의 적합도가 모두 낮게 나타난 것은 현재 관리되지 않는 대나무 숲의 현 상황을 그대로 보여 주는결과라 생각된다. 그러나 이들 두가지 추정식에 대한 잔차검정에서 일부 구간을 제외하고는 “0”를 중심으로 잔차가 고르게 분포하여 식을 이용함은가능할 것으로 보였다. 다만 추후 정밀한 현장조사와 모니터링 및 현실을 반영할 수 있는 적합성 높은 식의 도출이 요구된다.
Abstract
This study was conducted to estimate the density of standing trees, the amount of new bamboo trees, and the amount of dead bambootrees (Phyllostachys nigra and Phyllostachys bambusoides) in Gyeongnam district. The number of plots for the density of standing bambootrees and the sprout of new bamboo trees was 299, and the number of plots for dead bamboo trees was 255. The estimation equationsused the analysis were various such as inverse polynomial, exponential, nonlinear, and regression equations, and their statistical testswere performed using the fitness index and the residual test. The 1st inverse polynomial equation was found to be optimal for estimatingthe amount of new bamboo trees, and the fitness index was found to be 0.2622. And the optimal equation for estimating the densityof standing bamboo trees was the exponential function equation, and the fitness index was low at 0.1963. In addition, the equationfor estimating the amount of dead bamboo trees was derived as a regression equation with the existing number of standing bambootrees and the number of new bamboo trees as independent variables, and the coefficient of determination was 0.4996. When the equationderived in this way is spread to Gyeongnam district, it is estimated that the annual average tree density of bamboo forests in these areas is 19,309 trees/ha and the number of dead trees is 1,706 trees/ha. The low fitness index of the density estimation equation ofboth new bamboo trees and standing bamboo trees is thought to be the result of showing the current situation of bamboo forests thatare not currently managed. However, the residual test for these two estimation equations showed that the residuals were evenly distributedaround “0” except for some sections, and it seemed possible to use the equation. On the other hand, it is necessary to conduct precisefield survey and sustainable monitoring in the future, and to derive a highly suitable equation reflecting real forests.
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