우리나라 산불의 시계열 특성
Time-Series Characteristics of Forest Fire Occurrence in Korea
2
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
우리나라 산불 발생에 관한 시계열적 특성은 다음과 같다. 1960년부터 2019년까지 연도별 산불 발생빈도는 약 16.6년을 주기를, 2003년부터2019년까지 산불 발생빈도는 약 11.3개월의 주기를 갖는 것으로 확인되었고, 연도별, 월별 시계열은 안정된 경향을 보여 증가 혹은 감소하는추세를 확인할 수는 없었다(P<0.05). 지역별 산불 발생 현황을 확인한 결과 경상북도에서 산불이 가장 많이 발생한 것으로 나타났고, 산불피해면적은 강원도가 가장 넓은 특징을 보였다. 또한, 지역별 시계열적 주기성은 산불 발생빈도가 높은 순으로 FFT-Power가 높은 경향을 보였으나공통적으로 약 11~12개월 사이의 주기를 갖는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 요일별로 산불 발생빈도를 확인한 결과 요일별로 산불 발생빈도가뚜렷하게 다르다는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다(P<0.001). 따라서 산불 발생빈도는 기상 현상 등 자연과학적인 요소와 함께 인문사회적인 요소 모두와높은 관계에 있었다.
Abstract
This study was performed for confirming the time-series characteristics of the forest fire occurrence. As a result of spectrum analysis about annual time-series from 1960 to 2018, it was found that it had a cycle of about 16.6 years. And as a result of monthly analysis, it was a cycle of about 11.3 months during 2003-2019. These had not tendency to increase or decrease, because of the yearly and monthly time-series showed a stable trend (P<0.05). The frequency of forest fire occurrence by each day of the week showed a different trend (P<0.001). On the other hand, the forest fire frequency is highest in Kyeongsangbuk-do, however the damaged area is highest in Kangwon-do. As a result of monthly spectrum analysis among regions, fast Fourier-transform power tended to be high with order of high frequency, it had a cycle between 11 and 12 months in common. Therefore, the frequency of forest fire occurrence is considered to be highly related to both humanities and social factors as well as natural science factors.
참고문헌 (34)
- Abatzoglou J, "Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across Western US forests", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113, pp.11770~11775 (2016)
- Yves Bergeron, "Past, Current and Future Fire Frequency in the Canadian Boreal Forest: Implications for Sustainable Forest Management", AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 33(6), pp.356~360 (2004), Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences[DOI]
- Bergeron Y, "Natural fire frequency for the eastern Canadian boreal forest", Can. J. For. Res, 31, pp.384~391 (2001)[DOI]
- Dennison PE, "Large wildfire trends in the Western United States 1984-2011", Geophysical Res, 41, pp.2928~2923 (2014)
- Flannigan MD, "Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation : Climate change implications", Climatic Change, 134, pp.59~71 (2016)
- Frigo M, "FFTW: An adaptive software architecture for the FFT", Proceeding of the International Conference on Acoustics Speech and Signal Proceeding, 3, pp.1381~1384 (1998)
- Fuller WA, "Introduction to statistical time series" (1976), Wiley and Sons
- A. J. Soja, "AVHRR-derived fire frequency, distribution and area burned in Siberia", International Journal of Remote Sensing, 25(10), pp.1939~1960 (2004), Informa UK Limited[DOI]
- "IBM SPSS statistics 22 Algorithms" (2013)[URL]
- Iwueze I, "Comparison of two time series decomposition method : Least squares and Buys-Ballot method", OJS, 6(6), pp.1123~1137 (2016)
- "Fire policy change and countermeasure through forest fire statistics analysis" (2010)[URL]
- 김대영, "GIS를 이용한 산불발생의 공간적 분석", 국토지리학회지, 48(3), pp.325~336 (2014), 국토지리학회
- 구남경, "재난 재해 지역의 산불 확산경로와 이동속도 예측 알고리즘", 한국정보통신학회논문지, 20(8), pp.1581~1586 (2016), 한국정보통신학회[DOI]
- Development and research of manufacture algorithms of forest fire map, "Korea Forest Research Institute", 361~ (2015)
- Korea Forest Service, "Annual statistics report of forest fire" (2016), Semmunhwa
- Korea Forest Service, "Forest fire statistical yearbook" (2018), Korea Forest Service
- "Forest fire statistics" (2020)[URL]
- Larsen C, "Spatial and temporal variations in boreal forest fire frequency", J. Biogeography, 24(5), pp.663~673 (1997)
- 이병두, "한국 산불 발생에 대한 확률 시뮬레이션 모델 개발", 한국산림과학회지, 100(1), pp.70~78 (2011), 한국산림과학회
- 이명욱, "산불통계로 본 우리나라의 산불특성 연구", 한국방재학회논문집, 12(5), pp.185~192 (2012), 한국방재학회
- 이시영, "Haines Index를 이용한 산불위험도 분석", 농업생명과학연구, 44(6), pp.69~78 (2010), 농업생명과학연구원
- 이시영, "한국의 산불발생 실태분석", 한국화재소방학회 논문지, 20(2), pp.54~63 (2006), 한국화재소방학회
- 이시영, "통계자료에 의한 기상과 산불특성의 관련성 -전라남도지방을 중심으로-", 농업생명과학연구, 45(4), pp.29~35 (2011), 농업생명과학연구원
- 이시영, "기상특성을 이용한 전국 산분발생확률 모형 개발", 한국농림기상학회지, 6(4), pp.242~249 (2004), 한국농림기상학회
- Lim J, "Forest fire and meteorology of Eastern Korea", Korean J. Agri. For. Meteo, 2(2), pp.62~67 (2000)
- Ogunc A, "Using Excel: Companion to principles of econometrics" (2008), Wiley Global Education
- Ana Russo, "Assessing the role of drought events on wildfires in the Iberian Peninsula", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 237-238, pp.50~59 (2017), Elsevier BV[DOI]
- "Korean statistical Information service" (2020)[URL]
- Steel Z, "The fire frequency-severity relationship and the legacy of fire suppression in California forests", Ecosphere, 6(1), pp.1~23 (2015)
- 성미경, "기후 변화에 따른 한반도 산불 발생의 시공간적 변화 경향", 대기, 20(1), pp.27~35 (2010), 한국기상학회
- Tuomo H Wallenius, "Fire history in relation to site type and vegetation in Vienansalo wilderness in eastern Fennoscandia, Russia", Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 34(7), pp.1400~1409 (2004), Canadian Science Publishing[DOI]
- A. L. Westerling, "Climate and Wildfire in the Western United States", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84(5), pp.595~604 (2003), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Williams AP, "Causes and implications of extreme atmospheric moisture demand during the record-breaking 2011 wildfire season in the Southwestern United States", Amer. Meteo. Soc, 53, pp.2671~2684 (2014)
- Won M, "An analysis of forest fire occurrence hazards by changing temperature and humidity of ten-day intervals for 30 years in spring", Korean J. Agri. For. Meteo, 8(4), pp.250~259 (2006)