본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

A New Macro-Financial System for a Stable and Crisis-resilient Growth in Korea

0

조회

0

다운로드

5

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류경제학

초록

A structuralist macroeconomics perspective is taken to interpret the two recent financial crises in Korea, and new policy framework and reform measures are suggested to build a crisis-resilient macro- financial system. This paper focuses on the “Frenkel-Neftci” cycle (Taylor 1998) and the two kinds of expected spreads, interest spread and capital gain spreads, which initially motivate foreign investment in emerging economies. To establish a crisis-resilient macro-financial system, a new macro policy framework that can be described as “an intermediate system” is proposed, with full capital mobility but with an explicit option of Tobin taxes, flexible basket, band, and crawl (BBC) exchange rate system, and relative independence in monetary policy striking a new balance between interest rates and exchange rate targeting. An intermediate system is proposed because it is not easy to prevent the “two kinds of spreads” from happening simultaneously in a standard open macroeconomic policy setting.

Abstract

A structuralist macroeconomics perspective is taken to interpret the two recent financial crises in Korea, and new policy framework and reform measures are suggested to build a crisis-resilient macro- financial system. This paper focuses on the “Frenkel-Neftci” cycle (Taylor 1998) and the two kinds of expected spreads, interest spread and capital gain spreads, which initially motivate foreign investment in emerging economies. To establish a crisis-resilient macro-financial system, a new macro policy framework that can be described as “an intermediate system” is proposed, with full capital mobility but with an explicit option of Tobin taxes, flexible basket, band, and crawl (BBC) exchange rate system, and relative independence in monetary policy striking a new balance between interest rates and exchange rate targeting. An intermediate system is proposed because it is not easy to prevent the “two kinds of spreads” from happening simultaneously in a standard open macroeconomic policy setting.

참고문헌 (55)

  1. Bhagwatti, J., "The Capital Myth: The Difference between Trade in Widgets and Dollars", Foreign Affairs, 77(3), pp.7~12 (1998)
  2. BIS, "Principles for Sound Liquidity Management and Supervision. September", ~ (2008)
  3. Campbell, J., "Global Currency Hedging", NBER WP, (13088) (2007)
  4. Chow, H.-K., "Singapore’s Exchange Rate Policy: Some Implementation Issues", Singapore Economic Review, 52(3), pp.445~458 (2007)
  5. Chung, D.-K., "Fostering Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia" (2009), World Scientific
  6. Eatwell, J., "Global Finance at Risk" (2000), The New Press
  7. Global Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis, "Edison, H.", ~, pp.NBER Working Paper No. 9100 (2002)
  8. Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?, "Edwards, Sebastian", ~, pp.NBER Working Paper No. 8076 (2001)
  9. Capital Controls, Capital Control Flow Contractions, and Economic Vulneralibility, "Edwards, Sebastian", ~, pp.NBER Working Paper No. 12852 (2001)
  10. Eichengreen, B., "Taming Capital Flows", World Development (1999)
  11. Eichengreen, B., "Capital Account Liberalization: What do the Cross Country Studies Tell Us?" (2001), University of California
  12. Should Financial Flows be Regulated? Yes, "Epstein, G.", ~, pp.DESA Working Paper No. 77 (2009)
  13. Capital Management Techniques in Developing Countries: An Assessment of Experiences from the 1990’s and Lessons for the Future, "Epstein, G.", Political Economy and Research Institute, ~, pp.Working Paper Series 56 (2003)
  14. Ferrari-Filho, F., "Exchange Rate Regime Proposal for Emerging Countries: A Keynesian Perspective", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 31(2), pp.227~248 (2008)
  15. Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the IMF, "Fisher, S.", International Finance Section, ~, pp.Princeton Essays in International Finance No. 207 (1998)
  16. FSF, "Strengthening Liquidity Standards. December", ~ (2008)
  17. Glick, Reuven, "Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias", Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), pp.698~714 (2006)
  18. Grenville, S., "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Countries", Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin (2000)
  19. Grilli, Vittorio, "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls", IMF Staff Papers, 42(3), pp.517~551 (1995)
  20. Kang, H., "Fluctuations in Real Estate Prices and Monetary Policy Counter Measures", Monthly Bulletin, 60(7), pp.23~60 (2006), Bank of Korea
  21. Keynes, J. M., "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (1936), Macmillan
  22. 김경환, "외환위기 전후 주택시장 구조변화와 주택정책", 경제학연구, 55(4), pp.369~399 (2007), 한국경제학회
  23. Kim, K.-H., "National Land and Real Estate", Presentation at ‘The Korean Economy 60 Years’ Conference (2008)
  24. Opening to Capital Flows and Im- plications from Korea. IMER Working Paper, "Kim, K.", Bank of Korea, ~ (2009)
  25. Kim, K., "Foreign Exchange Liberalization and Its Im- plications: The Case of the Korean Won", HKMA Conference on Currency Internationalization: International Experiences and Implication for the Renminbi (2007)
  26. Kindleberger, C. P., "A Financial History of Western Europe" (1984), George Allen & Unwin
  27. Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth and Economic Growth, "Klein, M.", ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 7384 (1999)
  28. Kong, C., "Analysis of the Different Impacts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates across Business Cycles", Monthly Bulletin, 63, pp.23~49 (2009), Bank of Korea
  29. Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal, "Kose, M. A.", ~, pp.IMF Working Paper WP (2006), 06[DOI]
  30. In Search of the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization. World Bank Working Paper, "Kraay, A.", ~ (1998)
  31. Lane, P. R., "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities", Journal of International Economics, 73(2), pp.223~250 (2007)
  32. Lee, S.-Y., "Controversy Persists over Foreign Bank Control. Korea Times, Section 6, December 30", ~ (2009)
  33. Lee, T., "On Overseas Investment of Korea and Foreign Domestic Investment", Foreign Exchange International Financial Review, 7, pp.95~114 (2006), Bank of Korea
  34. Capital Controls: An Evaluation. NBER Working Paper, "Magud, N.", ~ (2006)
  35. Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets: A Showdown for Few Theoretical Misconceptions. CSGG Discussion Paper No. 42, "Malovic, M.", ~ (2007)
  36. O'Donnel, B., "Financial Openness and Economic Performance" (2001), Trinity College Dublin
  37. Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls, "Ostry, Jonathan D.", The Role of Controls.IMF Staff Position Notes,SPN, 04,February 19, pp.2010, ~[DOI]
  38. Park, C., "An Analysis of the Relation between the Korea-US Policy Rate Gap and KRW", USD Exchange Rate, 2008, 50~80[DOI]
  39. Quinn, D., "The Correlation of Change in International Financial Regulation", American Political Science Review, 91(3), pp.531~551 (1997)
  40. Reinhart, C., "The Aftermath of Financial Crises", American Economic Review, 99(2), pp.446~472 (2009)
  41. Rodrik, D., "Who Needs Capital Account Convertibility?", Essays in International Finance, (207), pp.55~65 (1998)
  42. Rodrik, D., "did Financial Globalization Disappear?", IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), pp.112~138 (2009)
  43. Rogoff, K., "Monetary Models of Dollar", Yen, Economic Journal, pp.1999, 109(459)[DOI]
  44. Ryou, S., "An Analysis of the Efficiency and Stability of Korea’s Foreign Exchange and Swap Market", Monthly Bulletin, 62, pp.54~92 (2008), Bank of Korea
  45. Stiglitz, J. E., "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability", World Development, 28(6), pp.1075~1086 (2000)
  46. Joseph E. Stiglitz, "Global Crisis and a Crisis-resilient Macro-financial System", Seoul Journal of Economics (2010), Seoul Journal of Economics
  47. Summers, L. H., "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention and Cures", American Economic Review, 90(2), pp.1~16 (2000)
  48. Taylor, L., "Capital Market Crises: Liberalization, Fixed Exchange Rate, and Market-Driven Destabilization", Cambridge Journal of Eco- nomics, 22(6), pp.663~676 (1998)
  49. Report of the Expert on Reform of International Monetary and Financial System, "UN Commission", United Nations, ~ (2009)
  50. Trade and Development Report 2009, "UNCTAD", United Nations, ~ (2009)
  51. Flexible BBC Exchange Rate System and Exchange Rate Cooperation in East Asia, "Wang, Y. K.", ~, pp.KIEP Working Paper 08-03 (2008)
  52. Williamson, J., "Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility" (1999), Institute for International Economics
  53. Wilson, P., "Monetary Policy in Singapore: A BBC Approach. in: Singapore and Asian in Globalized World" (2009), World Scientific
  54. Yang, Y., "An Analysis of the Attractions of Arbitrage Transactions and of Domestic Bond Investment by Foreigners and Korean Branches of Foreign Banks", Monthly Bulletin, pp.55~89 (2008), Bank of Korea
  55. Yoon, S., "Analysis of Factors Affecting Inflows and Outflows of Foreign Capital for Stock Investment", Monthly Bulletin, 61(9), pp.23~56 (2007), Bank of Korea

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (4건)