우리나라에서의 디플레이션 발생 위험 평가
Assessment of Deflation Risk in Korea
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글로벌 금융위기 등으로 2008.7월 이후 미국, 유럽, 일본 등 주요국의 물가상승률이 하락세로 돌아서고 일부 기관들이 주요국에 대한 향후 인플레이션 전망치를 마이너스대로 발표하면서 디플레이션 발생 가능성에 대한 우려감이 커지고 있다. 일반적으로 디플레이션은 장기경기침체로 인식되어 디플레이션이라는 용어 자체가 확산될 경우 금융시장에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있고 경제주체들의 심리적 불안을 심화시키는 요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 최근 우리나라에서도 올해 경제가 당초 예상보다 더 악화될 우려가 커지고 있는 가운데 일부에서 디플레이션 발생 가능성을 제기하고 있다. 연평균 기준으로 볼 때 우리나라에서는 1966년 이후 마이너스 물가상승률(소비자물가기준)을 보인 예는 한 차례도 없었다. 그러나 앞으로 글로벌 경기침체가 예상보다 깊고 장기적으로 진행될 경우 일부 품목을 중심으로 물가상승이 급속히 둔화될 가능성을 배제하기 어렵다. 이러한 관점에서 본 연구는 IMF 등에서 제시하고 있는 기준과 계량적 분석을 통해 우리나라에서의 디플레이션 발생 가능성을 구체적인 수치로 시산·평가해 보고자 한다. 2008년말 기준으로 IMF 취약성 지수 및 분포 특징 등 다양한 방법론을 이용하여 최근 우리나라에서의 디플레이션 발생 위험 정도를 평가해본 결과 그 가능성은 매우 낮은 것으로 판단되었다. 아울러 2009년중 인플레이션 발생에 대한 상․하방 위험 확률을 모두 고려해 보면 아직까지는 상방위험이 더 큰 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
Due to the global financial crisis, the inflation in major countries such as U.S., Europe and Japan is on the decline and some agencies forecast the expected inflation in major countries to be in a negative territory. These phenomena are exacerbating the concerns about deflation risk. If deflation, which is generally perceived as long run economic recession, become widely contagious, such deflation could severely affect financial markets and might serve as a factor seriously rattling economic entities' confidence about market conditions. Recently, with the growing concerns that economy would be deteriorated more than expected, some are raising the possibility of deflation. On a basis of annual average changes, inflation(consumer price basis) has never been recorded to be minus since 1966. However, if the global economic downturn deepens and persists in a long run, it is difficult to deny the possibility that, starting largely in some commodities, inflation would sharply slow down. This study strives to assess the risk of deflation in Korea by calculating it into concrete figures based on the methodology used by the International Monetary Fund, and other econometric analyses. On the end of 2008 basis, the risk of deflation in Korea is evaluated by using a variety of methodology such as IMF Vulnerability Index and the distributional characteristics of price changes. The results show the possibility of deflation is extremely slim. Furthermore, according to the analysis of both the upside and downside risk probabilities about the occurrence of inflation in 2009, former seems greater than the latter.
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