A Study on the Ex-ante Evaluation on Government R&D Programs Using Fuzzy Reasoning
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In 2007, the Korean government officially introduced an ex-ante evaluationsystem, the preliminary feasibility study (PFS), for supporting the decisionmaking process that informs R&D investment budgets, which uses economic,policy, and technological criteria to evaluate prospective R&D programs. Froman analytical perspective, this kind of balanced assessment is very important inbudget allocation decision making and thus the need for objective quantitativevalues that can lead to a conclusive judgment on the status of an R&D investmenthas been growing. However, owing to measurement problems and a lack of information, PFSsas well as economic feasibility assessments, a critical subdimension of PFSs,have faced difficulties in deriving a satisfactory single assertive conclusivevalue. Furthermore, the emphasis on expected economic returns of the R&Dinvestment from the perspective of long-term national strategy in PFSs seems tocontradict the original intention of ex-ante evaluation system, which is supposedto take not only economic but also technological and policy dimensions intoaccount independently. The aim of this study is to investigate the question of independency in PFSs,especially in the assessment of economic feasibility raised by many critics. Ifthere are some systematic connections between assessments of other dimensionsof feasibility and the economic one, it becomes hard to sustain the basic assumptionof the PFS, and we need to explicitly take this linkage into account in performingPFSs. To verify the existence of this connection, I propose a method toderive pseudovalues that provide an economic assessment of the R&D programfrom those originally derived via analyses: a method of a fuzzy reasoningapproach that converts experts’ judgments into systematic calculations. Furthermore,I suggest that the results generated by fuzzy reasoning can be used tocomplement a traditional economic analysis, since fuzzy reasoning can informthe development of a comprehensive structure for ex-ante evaluation for governmentprograms.
Abstract
In 2007, the Korean government officially introduced an ex-ante evaluationsystem, the preliminary feasibility study (PFS), for supporting the decisionmaking process that informs R&D investment budgets, which uses economic,policy, and technological criteria to evaluate prospective R&D programs. Froman analytical perspective, this kind of balanced assessment is very important inbudget allocation decision making and thus the need for objective quantitativevalues that can lead to a conclusive judgment on the status of an R&D investmenthas been growing. However, owing to measurement problems and a lack of information, PFSsas well as economic feasibility assessments, a critical subdimension of PFSs,have faced difficulties in deriving a satisfactory single assertive conclusivevalue. Furthermore, the emphasis on expected economic returns of the R&Dinvestment from the perspective of long-term national strategy in PFSs seems tocontradict the original intention of ex-ante evaluation system, which is supposedto take not only economic but also technological and policy dimensions intoaccount independently. The aim of this study is to investigate the question of independency in PFSs,especially in the assessment of economic feasibility raised by many critics. Ifthere are some systematic connections between assessments of other dimensionsof feasibility and the economic one, it becomes hard to sustain the basic assumptionof the PFS, and we need to explicitly take this linkage into account in performingPFSs. To verify the existence of this connection, I propose a method toderive pseudovalues that provide an economic assessment of the R&D programfrom those originally derived via analyses: a method of a fuzzy reasoningapproach that converts experts’ judgments into systematic calculations. Furthermore,I suggest that the results generated by fuzzy reasoning can be used tocomplement a traditional economic analysis, since fuzzy reasoning can informthe development of a comprehensive structure for ex-ante evaluation for governmentprograms.
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