Bayesian Multiple Changepoints Detection for the Power Law Process with Binary Segmentation Procedures
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
We consider a power law process assumed to have multiple changepoints. We propose a binary segmentation procedure for locating changepoints. We select one model between no-changepoint model and changepoint model by the Bayes factor. We repeat this procedure until no more changepoint is found. Then we carry out a multiple test with the Bayes factor through the intrinsic priors of Berger and Pericchi (1996) to investigate the system behaviour of failure times. We demonstrate our results with a real dataset and some simulated datasets.
Abstract
We consider a power law process assumed to have multiple changepoints. We propose a binary segmentation procedure for locating changepoints. We select one model between no-changepoint model and changepoint model by the Bayes factor. We repeat this procedure until no more changepoint is found. Then we carry out a multiple test with the Bayes factor through the intrinsic priors of Berger and Pericchi (1996) to investigate the system behaviour of failure times. We demonstrate our results with a real dataset and some simulated datasets.
참고문헌 (14)
- Ascher, H., "Modeling, Inference, Misconceptions and Their Causes. in: Repairable Systems Reliability" (1984), Marcel Dekker
- Berger, J. O., "The intrinsic Bayes factor for model selection and prediction", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91, pp.109~122 (1996)
- Carlin, B. P., "Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of changepoint problems", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society C, 41, pp.389~405 (1992)
- Carlstein, E., "Change-point problems" (1994), Institute of Mathematical Statistics
- Chib, S., "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models", Journal of Econometrics, 86, pp.221~241 (1998)
- Crow, L. H., "Reliability Analysis of Complex Repairable Systems, Reliability and Biom-etry", pp.379~410 (1974), SIAM
- Duane, J. T., "Learning curve approach to reliability monitoring", IEEE Transactions on Aerospace, 2, pp.563~566 (1964)
- Green, P, J., "Revisible Jump Markov Chanin Monte Carlo Computation and Bayesian Model Determination", Biometrika, 82, pp.711~732 (1995)
- Jarrett, R.G., "A note on the Intervals Between Coal-Mining Disasters", Biometrika, 66, pp.191~193 (1979)
- Kim, S. W., "Intrinsic priors for model selection using an encompassing model with applications to censored failure time data", Lifetime Data Analysis, 6, pp.251~269 (2000)
- Raftery, A. E., "Change point and change curve modeling in stocastic processes and spatial statistics", Journal of Applied Statistical Science, 1, pp.403~424 (1994)
- Raftery, A. E., "Bayesian analysis of a Poisson process with a change-point", Biometrika, 73, pp.85~89 (1986)
- Yang, T. Y., "Bayesian Binary Segmentation Procedure for a Poisson Process with Multiple Changepoints", Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 10(10), pp.772~785 (2001)
- Vostrikova, L.J., "Detecting disorder in multidimensional random processes", Soviet Math- ematics Doklady, 24, pp.55~59 (1981)
