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Bayesian Multiple Changepoints Detection for the Power Law Process with Binary Segmentation Procedures

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We consider a power law process assumed to have multiple changepoints. We propose a binary segmentation procedure for locating changepoints. We select one model between no-changepoint model and changepoint model by the Bayes factor. We repeat this procedure until no more changepoint is found. Then we carry out a multiple test with the Bayes factor through the intrinsic priors of Berger and Pericchi (1996) to investigate the system behaviour of failure times. We demonstrate our results with a real dataset and some simulated datasets.

Abstract

We consider a power law process assumed to have multiple changepoints. We propose a binary segmentation procedure for locating changepoints. We select one model between no-changepoint model and changepoint model by the Bayes factor. We repeat this procedure until no more changepoint is found. Then we carry out a multiple test with the Bayes factor through the intrinsic priors of Berger and Pericchi (1996) to investigate the system behaviour of failure times. We demonstrate our results with a real dataset and some simulated datasets.

참고문헌 (14)

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  10. Kim, S. W., "Intrinsic priors for model selection using an encompassing model with applications to censored failure time data", Lifetime Data Analysis, 6, pp.251~269 (2000)
  11. Raftery, A. E., "Change point and change curve modeling in stocastic processes and spatial statistics", Journal of Applied Statistical Science, 1, pp.403~424 (1994)
  12. Raftery, A. E., "Bayesian analysis of a Poisson process with a change-point", Biometrika, 73, pp.85~89 (1986)
  13. Yang, T. Y., "Bayesian Binary Segmentation Procedure for a Poisson Process with Multiple Changepoints", Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 10(10), pp.772~785 (2001)
  14. Vostrikova, L.J., "Detecting disorder in multidimensional random processes", Soviet Math- ematics Doklady, 24, pp.55~59 (1981)

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