1. Calculations and Choices in Asymmetric Conflict: 2. Incentivizing Ethnic and Religious Identity in Turkey
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This work analyzes how and why protracted asymmetric conflict persists and changes. It argues that the paradigm of strategical calculations and choices provides more accurate answers to the question than the theory of symbolic group fears and myths. Ethnic and religious conflict occurs if and when parties do not possess credible information about the behavior of others. Also, likelihood of a conflict settlement depends on the probability of winning, the time estimate required to win, the cost rate of conflict, and the payoff values from winning. In fact, the recent transformations in asymmetric conflicts among the secular Kemalits, the Kurdish nationalists, and political Islamists in Turkey can be explained by the incentive-driven approaches. Due to the significant rise of pro-Islamic JDP and the sudden status change of Iraqi Kurds, the preferences of actors have been largely modified. In specific, given that the stakes of psychological conflict are not based on tangible materialistic resources and thus not dividable, the probability of settlement in identity asymmetry is higher than others. In turn, political control conflict deals with quite limited stakes and induces high competition. Thus, risk-aversion in political authority asymmetry is often enough to motivate conflict escalation.
Abstract
This work analyzes how and why protracted asymmetric conflict persists and changes. It argues that the paradigm of strategical calculations and choices provides more accurate answers to the question than the theory of symbolic group fears and myths. Ethnic and religious conflict occurs if and when parties do not possess credible information about the behavior of others. Also, likelihood of a conflict settlement depends on the probability of winning, the time estimate required to win, the cost rate of conflict, and the payoff values from winning. In fact, the recent transformations in asymmetric conflicts among the secular Kemalits, the Kurdish nationalists, and political Islamists in Turkey can be explained by the incentive-driven approaches. Due to the significant rise of pro-Islamic JDP and the sudden status change of Iraqi Kurds, the preferences of actors have been largely modified. In specific, given that the stakes of psychological conflict are not based on tangible materialistic resources and thus not dividable, the probability of settlement in identity asymmetry is higher than others. In turn, political control conflict deals with quite limited stakes and induces high competition. Thus, risk-aversion in political authority asymmetry is often enough to motivate conflict escalation.
참고문헌 (53)
- "Erdogan’s Way", Time Magazine (November 2011), ~ (2011)
- Angrist, Michele Penner, "Party Systems and Regime Formation in the Modern Middle East: Explaining Turkish Exceptionalism", Comparative Politics, 36(2) (2004)
- Azar, Edward, "The Management of Protracted Social Conflicts: Theory and Case" (1990), Aldershot
- Bates, Robert, "Prosperity and Violence : The Political Economy of Development" (2001), W. W. Norton & Company
- Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, "Central Issues in the Study of International Conflict, In The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy Oxford" (2006), Oxford University Press
- Bugra, Ayse, "State and Business in Modern Turkey" (1994), State University of New York Press
- Byman, Daniel L., "Keeping the Peace: Lasting Solutions to Ethnic Conflict" (2002), Johns Hopkins University Press
- Cinar, Menderes, "The Militarization of Secular Opposition in Turkey", Insight Turkey, ~ (2010)
- Fearon, James D., "Explaining Interethnic Cooperation", American Political Science Review, 90(4) (1996)
- Fearon, James, "Ethnic Mobilization and Ethnic Violence, In The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy" (2006), Oxford University Press
- Fearon, James, "The Rise of Emergency Relief Aid, In Humanitarianism in Question: Politics, Power, Ethics. Ithaca" (2008), Cornell University Press
- Freedom House, "Turkey, In Freedom in the World" (2011), Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
- Galtung, Johan, "Violence, Peace and Peace Research", Journal of Peace Research, 6(3) (1969)
- Galtung, Johan, "Cultural Violence", Journal of Peace Research, 27(3) (1990)
- Grigoriadis, Ioannis, "Political Participation of Turkey’s Kurds and Alevis: A Challenge for Turkey’s Democratic Consolidation", Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 6(4) (2006)
- Gunter, Michael M., "The Kurds in Turkey" (1990), Westview
- Hall, Peter, "Preference Formation as a Political Process: The Case of Monetary Union in Europe, In Preferences and Situations: Points of Intersection between Historical and Rational Choice Institutionalism" (2005), Russell Sage Foundation
- Hardin, Russell, "One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict" (1995), Princeton University Press
- Horowitz, Donald L., "The Deadly Ethnic Riot" (2001), University of California Press
- Human Rights Watch, "Human Rights Overview: Turkey (2004-2010)", ~ (2010)
- "Hurriyet (January 19, 2011)", ~ (2011)
- "Hurriyet (January 21, 2011)", ~ (2011)
- "Hurriyet (January 23, 2011)", ~ (2011)
- "Hurriyet (March 31, 2001)", ~ (2001)
- Katznelson, Ira, "Intersections Between Historical and Rational Choice Institutionalism, In Preferences and Situations: Points of Intersection between Historical and Rational Choice Institutionalism" (2005), Russell Sage Foundation
- Kaufman, Stuart J., "Symbolic Politics or Rational Choice? Testing Theories of Extreme Ethnic Violence", International Security, 30(4) (2006)
- Kaufman, Stuart J., "Modern Hatreds : The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War" (2001), Cornell University Press
- Kaufmann, Chaim, "Rational Choice and Progress in the Study of Ethnic Conflict: A Review Essay", Security Studies, 14(1) (2005)
- Koremenos, Barbara, "The Rational Design of International Institutions", International Organization, 55(4) (2001)
- Kuran, Timur, "Ethnic Dissimilation and its International Diffusion, In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict" (1998), Princeton University Press
- Kuran, Timur, "Ethnic Norms and Their Transformation through Reputational Cascades", Journal of Legal Studies, 27(2) (1998)
- Lake, David A., "Spreading Fear: The Genesis of Transnational Ethnic Conflict, In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict" (1998), Princeton University Press
- Levi, Margaret, "Inducing Preferences Within Organizations: The Case of Unions, In Preferences and Situations: Points of Intersection between Historical and Rational Choice Institutionalism" (2005), Russell Sage Foundation
- Mason, David, "How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach", The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40(4) (1996)
- "Milliyet (June 7, 1997)", ~ (1997)
- North, Douglass, "Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance" (1990), Cambridge University Press
- Onis, Ziya, "Turkey at the Polls: A New Path Emerges", Journal of Democracy, 14(2) (2003)
- Ozbudun, Ergun, "Contemporary Turkish Politics: Challenges to Democratic Consolidation" (2000), Lynne Rienner Publishers
- Petersen, Roger, "Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe" (2002), Cambridge University Press
- Pierson, Paul, "Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics", American Political Science Review, 94(2) (2000)
- Posusney, Marsha Pripstein, "The Middle East’s Democracy Deficit in Comparative Perspective. In Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance" (2005), Lynne Rienner
- "Radikal (February 2, 1999)", ~ (1999)
- Ramsbotham, Oliver, "The Analysis of Protracted Social Conflict: A Tribute to Edward Azar", Review of International Studies, 31(2) (2005)
- Romano, David, "The Kurdish Nationalist Movement: Opportunity, Mobilization, and Identity" (2006), Cambridge University Press
- Rustow, Dankwart, "Transitions to Democracy", Comparative Politics, 2(3) (1970)
- Toft, Monica Duffy, "The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory" (2003), Princeton University Press
- U.S. Department of State, "Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Turkey (1999-2010)", ~ (2010)
- Varshney, Ashutosh, "Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India" (2002), Yale University Press
- Walter, Barbara F., "Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars" (2001), Princeton University Press
- Weingast, Barry, "Persuasion, Preference Change, and Critical Junctures: The Microfoundations of a Macroscopic Concept, In Preferences and Situations: Points of Intersection between Historical and Rational Choice Institutionalism" (2005), Russell Sage Foundation
- White, Jenny B., "The End of Islamism? Turkey’s Muslimhood Model, In Remaking Muslim Politics: Pluralism, Contestation, Democratization. Princeton" (2005), Princeton University Press
- Wilkinson, Steven I., "Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India" (2004), Cambridge University Press
- "Zaman (January 20, 2011)", ~ (2011)