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Estimation and Comparative Analysis on the Distribution Functions of Air and Water Temperatures in Korean Coastal Seas

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주제분류토목공학

초록

The distribution shapes of air and water temperatures are basic and essential information, which determine the frequency patterns of their occurrence. It is also very useful to understand the changes in long-term air and water temperatures with respect to climate change. The typical distribution shapes of air and water temperatures cannot be well fitted using widely used/accepted normal distributions because their shapes show multimodal distributions. In this study, Gaussian mixture distributions and kernel distributions are suggested as the more suitable models to fit their distribution shapes. Based on the results, the tail shape exhibits different patterns. The tail is long in higher temperature regions of water temperature distribution and in lower temperature regions of air temperature distribution. These types of shape comparisons can be useful to identify the patterns of long-term air and water temperature changes and the relationship between air and water temperatures. It is nearly impossible to identify change patterns using only mean-temperatures and normal distributions.

Abstract

The distribution shapes of air and water temperatures are basic and essential information, which determine the frequency patterns of their occurrence. It is also very useful to understand the changes in long-term air and water temperatures with respect to climate change. The typical distribution shapes of air and water temperatures cannot be well fitted using widely used/accepted normal distributions because their shapes show multimodal distributions. In this study, Gaussian mixture distributions and kernel distributions are suggested as the more suitable models to fit their distribution shapes. Based on the results, the tail shape exhibits different patterns. The tail is long in higher temperature regions of water temperature distribution and in lower temperature regions of air temperature distribution. These types of shape comparisons can be useful to identify the patterns of long-term air and water temperature changes and the relationship between air and water temperatures. It is nearly impossible to identify change patterns using only mean-temperatures and normal distributions.

참고문헌 (10)

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  6. Harmel, R.D, "Evaluating the adequacy of simulating maximum and minimum daily air temperature woth normal distributions", Journal of Applied Meteorology, 41, pp.744~753 (2002)
  7. 정신택, "한반도 연안 수온자료의 확률분포함수 추정", 한국해안·해양공학회논문집, 25(1), pp.11~19 (2013), 한국해안,해양공학회[DOI]
  8. 정신택, "한반도 연안 기온자료의 분포함수 추정", 한국해안·해양공학회논문집, 26(5), pp.278~284 (2014), 한국해안,해양공학회[DOI]
  9. Silverman, B.W, "Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis", pp.1998, Chapman & Hall
  10. Toth, Z, "The binormal distribution: A distribution for presenting asymmetrical but normal-like weather elements", Journal of Climate, 3, pp.128~136 (1990)

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