파랑 후측 모의 실험 기반 강릉항 폭풍파랑 분석
Characteristics of Storm Waves at Gangneung port Based on the Wave Hindcasting
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초록
본 연구에서는 동해 전역에 대해서 파랑 후측 모의 실험을 실시하고, 이 결과를 바탕으로 너울성 파랑에의해 큰 피해가 발생한 바 있는 강릉항 지역에서의 폭풍파랑 특성을 조사하였다. 이를 위해 먼저 본 연구의 파랑 후측 모의 실험 결과를 강릉항, 일본 Niigata, Hamada 등의 지점에서의 파랑관측 결과와 비교하였다. 이에 따르면, 본연구의 파랑 계산 결과는 비교적 잘 일치하였는데, 강릉항의 경우, 유의파고 및 첨두주기의 Pearson 상관 계수는 각각 0.92, 0.72에 달하는 것으로 나타났다. 이 후 강릉항 파랑 계산 결과에 대해 극치 분석을 실시하였는데, 본 연구에서는 POT 기법을 적용하고, 추출된 폭풍파랑을 GPD(Generalized Pareto) 함수에 적용하여 파랑 계산 결과 얻은 폭풍파랑의 재현주기를 산정하였다. 본 연구의 분석에 따르면, 2008년 2월 24일 발생한 폭풍 파랑의 재현 주기는 8.2 개월로 1년이 되지 않는 것으로 파악되었다. 그리고 재현주기가 1개월 이상되는 폭풍파랑에 대해 회귀분석을 실시해 유의파고 및 유의파 주기의 관계식을 구하였는데, 인 것으로 파악되었다.
Abstract
In the present study, the wave hindcasting has been performed, and then the characteristics of storm waves at Gangnueng port was investigated, in which the high waves are observed. Comparing the numerical results with the wave measurements at Gangneung port, Niigata, and Hamada, there were good agreements between them. In particular, the Pearson correlation coefficients of significant wave heights and peak periods at Gangneung port were 0.92 and 0.72, respectively. Then the extreme wave analysis on the significant wave heights was carried out for the estimation of the frequency of storm waves. In this analysis, the storm waves over the threshold were fitted to GPD(Generalized Pareto Distribution). According to this analysis, the return period of the storm wave on February, 24, 2008, one of the large storm waves at Gangneung port, was 8.2 months. Among the computed significant wave heights larger than one-year wave, 58.3% of them were resulted from the storm, while the others were from the typhoon. Additionally, the regression analysis on the waves larger than one-month wave has been conducted, and then the relationship between the computed significant wave heights and the significant wave period, was obtained.
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