기술발전에 따른 생존모형 선정
Selection of Survival Models for Technological Development
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In a technological driven environment, a depreciation estimate which is based on traditional life analysis results in a decelerated rate of capital recovery. This time pattern of technological growths models needs to be incorporated into life analysis framework especially in those industries experiencing fast technological changes. The approximation technique for calculating the variance can be applied to the six growth models that were selected by the degree of skewness and the transformation of the functions. For the Pearl growth model, the Gompertz growth model, and the Weibull growth model, the errors have zero mean and a constant variance over time. However, transformed models like the linearized Fisher-Pry model, the linearized Gompertz growth model, and the linearized Weibull growth model have increasing variance from zero to that point at which inflection occurs. It can be recommended that if the variance of error over time is increasing, then a transformation of observed data is appropriate.
Abstract
In a technological driven environment, a depreciation estimate which is based on traditional life analysis results in a decelerated rate of capital recovery. This time pattern of technological growths models needs to be incorporated into life analysis framework especially in those industries experiencing fast technological changes. The approximation technique for calculating the variance can be applied to the six growth models that were selected by the degree of skewness and the transformation of the functions. For the Pearl growth model, the Gompertz growth model, and the Weibull growth model, the errors have zero mean and a constant variance over time. However, transformed models like the linearized Fisher-Pry model, the linearized Gompertz growth model, and the linearized Weibull growth model have increasing variance from zero to that point at which inflection occurs. It can be recommended that if the variance of error over time is increasing, then a transformation of observed data is appropriate.
참고문헌 (24)
- Booth, H., "Transforming Gompertz’s Function for Fertility Analysis：The Development of a Standard for the Relational Gompertz Function", Population Studies, 38, pp.495~506 (1993)
- Conover, W. J., "Practical Non-parametric Statistics, 2nd Edition" (1980), John Wiley and Sons
- Dandekar, M., "Investigation the Product Life Cycle Concepts：An Application to Capital Recovery, Evaluation within the Telephone Industry", 박사, pp.1987
- Fisher, J. C., "A Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3, pp.75~88 (1971)
- Fitch, J. C., "Conceptual Framework for Forecasting the Useful Life of Industrial Property", Proceedings of the Iowa State University Regulatory Conference (1984)
- Goldfeld, S. M., "Some Test for Homoscedasticity", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 60(310), pp.539~547 (1965)
- Hayes, J. G., "Numerical Approximation to Functions and Data" (1970), University of London, The Athlone Press
- Lakani, H., "Diffusion of Environment-Saving Technological Change：A Petroleum Refining Case Study", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 7(1), pp.33~35 (1975)
- Martino, J. P., "Technological Forecasting For Decision Making" (1975), Elsevier
- Oh, H. S., "The Selection of Technological Forecasting Models in Life Analysis", 박사, pp.1988
- Oh, H. S., "A Comparison of Technological Growth Models", Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management, 22(2), pp.51~68 (1994)
- Oh, H. S., "Error Structure of Technological Growth Models", Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management, 23(1), pp.95~105 (1995)
- 오현승, "국내 산업설비의 폐기율 추정", 산업경영시스템학회지, 25(4), pp.79~85 (2002), 한국산업경영시스템학회
- 오현승, "설비 생존곡선 추정을 위한 혼합형 Weibull 함수의 활용", 산업경영시스템학회지, 30(1), pp.66~73 (2007), 한국산업경영시스템학회
- 오현승, "반도체 제조설비의 경제적 내용연수 산정", 산업경영시스템학회지, 30(4), pp.164~169 (2007), 한국산업경영시스템학회
- 오현승, "석유화학 제조설비의 경제적 감가상각률 산정", 산업경영시스템학회지, 32(1), pp.130~136 (2009), 한국산업경영시스템학회
- Pearl, R, "The Biology of Population" (1925), Alfred A. Konpf
- Sharif, M. N., "A Procedure for Adapting Technological Forecasting Models", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 7, pp.99~106 (1975)
- Sharif, M. N., "The Weibull distribution as a General Model for Forecasting Technological Change", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 18, pp.247~256 (1980)
- Tingyan, X., "A Combined Growth Model for Trend Forecasts", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 8, pp.175~186 (1990)
- Weibull, W., "A Statistical Distribution Function of Wide Applicability", Journal of Applied Mechanics, 18, pp.293~297 (1951)
- White, R. E., "A Test Procedure for Simulated Plant Record Method of Life Analysis", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, pp.1204~1212 (1970)
- Statistical Analysis of Industrial Property Retirement, Revised edition, "Winfrey, R.", Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, ~, pp.ERI Bulletin 125 (1967)
- Wolf F., "Forecasting Force of Mortality", Proceedings of the Iowa State University Regulatory Conference (1985)