구조선의 도착시간 산출을 위한 실험 데이터 구축
Construction of experimental data to calculate the arrival time of the rescue shi
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초록
조난 사고 발생 시 구조선의 현장 도착시간은 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 구조선의 도착시간을 추정하기 위한실험 데이터 구축 방법을 제시하였다. 이를 위하여 선박통항확률분포를 활용하였다. 목포항을 연구 대상 해역으로 선정하고, 1년간의 AIS 데이터를 활용하였다. 선박통항확률분포를 조사하기 위해 기준선을 설정하고, 선박의 횡거리 분포를계산하여, 정규분포와 이중 가우시안 혼합분포로 적합 시킨 후 각 매개변수를 추출하였다. 정규분포의 μ, μ ± 1σ와 이중가우시안 혼합분포의 μ1 위치를 각각 변침점으로 설정하여 위치와 확률을 도출하였다. 이를 매개변수 종류별로 연결하여 시나리오를 구축하여 도착시간을 계산할 수 있었다.
Abstract
The arrival time of rescue ships is very important in the event of distress. This paper presents the development of experimental data to calculate the arrival time of rescue ships. The ship’s traffic probability distribution was used. Mokpo Port was selected as the area of study, and AIS data for a 1 year period were used. For the ship’s traffic probability distribution, a gateline was established. The lateral range distribution was calculated and fitted to the normal distribution and two Gaussian mixture distributions (GMD2), and each parameter was extracted. After the locations of μ, μ ± 1σ of the normal distribution and μ1 of the two Gaussian mixture distribution(GMD2) were set as waypoints, the location and probability were determined. A scenario was established in relation to each type of parameter. Thus, the arrival time can be calculated.
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