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신뢰도 예측을 위한 수명시험 시뮬레이션

Life Testing Simulation for Reliability Prediction

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키워드

주제분류산업공학

초록

This paper presents a spreadsheet-based reliability prediction simulation framework for the conceptual product design stage to acquire system reliability information in timely manner. During early stage, reliability performance deals with both known and unknown failure rates and component-level and subsystem-level failure estimate to predict system reliability. A technique for performing life testing simulation using Excel spreadsheet has been developed under the such circumstances. This paper also discuss the results obtainable from this method such as reliability estimate, mean and variance of failures and confidence intervals. The resultant of this reliability prediction system is mainly benefitting small and medium-sized enterprise’s field engineers.

Abstract

This paper presents a spreadsheet-based reliability prediction simulation framework for the conceptual product design stage to acquire system reliability information in timely manner. During early stage, reliability performance deals with both known and unknown failure rates and component-level and subsystem-level failure estimate to predict system reliability. A technique for performing life testing simulation using Excel spreadsheet has been developed under the such circumstances. This paper also discuss the results obtainable from this method such as reliability estimate, mean and variance of failures and confidence intervals. The resultant of this reliability prediction system is mainly benefitting small and medium-sized enterprise’s field engineers.

참고문헌 (20)

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  3. 엄태원, "누적 해저드지의 모수추정에 관한 연구 : 컴퓨터 프로그래밍 및 신뢰성 공학에의 응용", 산업경영시스템학회지, 16(28), pp.145~155 (1993)
  4. 정수일, "신뢰성 확률지의 전산화에 관한 연구(VI)", 산업경영시스템학회지, 22(50), pp.373~380 (1999)
  5. 鄭載憲, "신뢰성 설계 및 데이터 분석을 위한 소프트웨어의 개발", 석사, pp.1992
  6. 최준선, "엑셀 2010 매크로 & VBA" (2011), 멘토르
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  11. Gedam, S. G., "Monte Carlo Simulation using Excel Spreadsheet for Predicting Reliability of a Complex System", Proc. Ann. Reliability and Maintainability Symp, pp.433~436 (2000)
  12. Jones, J. A., "Use of a field failure database for improvement of product reliability", Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 55, pp.131~134 (1997)
  13. Keeling, K. B., "Numerical Accuracy Issues in Using Excel for Simulation Studies", Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Confrence (2004)
  14. Law, A. M., "Simulation Modeling and Analysis, 2nd ed" (1991), McGraw-Hill
  15. Lawless, J. F., "Statistical Methods for Life Time Data" (1982), New York, John Wiley and Sons
  16. Lewis, E. E., "Introduction to Reliability Engineering, 2nd ed" (1992), John Wiley and Sons
  17. Nelson, Wayne, "Applied Life Data Analysis" (1982), John Wiley and Sons
  18. Ormon, S. W., "A Reliability Prediction Models to Support Conceptual Design", IEEE Trans. on Reliability, 51(2), pp.151~157 (2002)
  19. Palisade Corperation, "@Risk : Risk Analysis and Simulation Add-In for Microsoft Excel" (2000)
  20. Quanterion, "Reliability Toolkit : Commercial Practices Edition" (1997), Reliability Analysis Center

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