농업환경보전프로그램 농업 재배활동의 넥서스 기반 영향 평가 체계 구축 및 활용

Abstract

This study developed a nexus-based impact assessment framework to quantitatively evaluate the interrelationships among water, energy, food, carbon, and water quality (W–E–F–C–WQ) in major agricultural activities under the Agricultural Environment Conservation Program (AECP). While agricultural intensification has improved productivity, it has also increased environmental burdens such as greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient pollution. To address these challenges, an integrated data– modeling–nexus linkage system was established based on the APEX and APEX-Paddy models, incorporating climate, soil, crop, and management datasets. Using both model simulations and quantitative coefficients, this system estimated crop yield, water use, energy consumption, carbon emissions, and nutrient loads across different agricultural management practices. The results were standardized as relative change rates from reference activities, and an integrated nexus impact index was calculated using a radar-type approach integrating five nexus elements. The framework enables quantitative comparison of trade-offs and synergies among agricultural activities, supports the derivation of optimal agricultural management scenarios, and can be applied to village-level planning and evaluation within the AECP. It also allows region-specific weighting of nexus elements to reflect local priorities and policy objectives. The current framework focuses on crops with available datasets but can be further advanced by obtained crop parameters, improving validation with field measured data, and linking additional quantitative modules for non-modeling practices. This study establishes a practical and scalable decision-support framework for sustainable agricultural resource management and environmental policy planning in response to climate change.