이촌율 방정식을 활용한 농촌 소지역 격자인구 전망

Abstract

This study presents a methodology for projecting the population in rural areas using grid units to support more effective government policies in response to regional extinction. Grid data was extracted, and a rural migration model was developed, which was then incorporated into the Cohort Component Method (CCM) to project populations by gender and age group. Additionally, scenario analysis was conducted by introducing shocks to population migration factors, such as wages and jobs, to account for future uncertainty. In the case of Osu-myeon, Imsil-gun, the population is projected to decline from 3,274 in 2000 to 1,222 in 2040, representing an average annual decrease of 2.4%. The youth population is expected to show the steepest decline (-6.2%), while the working-age population is projected to decrease by 3.3%, and the elderly population is expected to increase by 0.9% annually. Furthermore, a scenario analysis based on the establishment of an industrial complex indicated that an increase in average wages and job opportunities in Osu-myeon accelerated the rural migration rate, affecting population distribution toward nearby cities or town areas. A limitation of this study is that it does not fully incorporate sociological factors affecting rural areas, requiring further research to address this issue.