소기업·소상공인의 생존분석에 관한 연구: 강원신용보증재단이 지원한 소기업·소상공인을 대상으로

Abstract

Small businesses and small-enterprises insufficiently able to cope with risk according to business fluctuations and information-collecting ability have a high rate of failure. Therefore, research is needed on a systematic support method to increase their viability. The purpose of this study was to use the survival analysis technique to offer suggestions to increase the viability through estimation of survival functions of businesses guaranteed by the Gangwon Credit Guarantee Foundation (GCGF). For this purpose, the non-parametric life table method of survival analysis was used. 34,465 small businesses and small-enterprises guaranteed by the GCGF between January 1st, 2008 and December 31st, 2012 were selected, among which the materials for 29,639 were censored, leaving 4,526 for analysis. Survival analysis was done by analyzing all businesses, area, type of industry, repayment type, business scale, gender of CEO, joint surety type, special guarantee type, property possession type, partial guarantee type, guarantee amount type, and age of CEO, and all were statistically significant excluding repayment type. This study is important because it did not analyze materials based on new or previous reports, but materials from a regional credit guarantee foundation, and suggested plans for improvement. Results such as these are expected to be instructive in the future for workers at regional credit guarantee foundation.