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사업전략과 주가급락위험

Business Strategy and Stock Price Crash Risk

송인욱|최영목
한국리스크관리학회 (Korea Risk Management Society)|2022.06|리스크관리연구 (The Journal of Risk Management)|제33권 제2호|pp. 37-69|DOI 10.21480/tjrm.33.2.202206.002

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키워드

Business StrategyStock Price Crash Risk사업전략주가폭락공격적전략방어적전략분석적전략Defender StrategyAnalyzer StrategyProspector Strategy
주제분류경영학

초록

본 연구는 기업의 사업전략(경쟁전략)을 공격적전략(혁신 및 위험추구), 방어적전략(원가우위 및 위험회피), 분석적전략(절충형)으로 나누고, 이러한 사업전략과 주가급락위험의 관계를 분석하였다. 국내 유가증권시장에 상장된 비금융기업을 대상으로 회귀모형을 OLS로 추정한 결과에서 방어적전략을 추구하는 기업이 공격적전략 및 분석적전략을 추구하는 기업에 비해 주가급락위험이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 내생성을 경감시키기 위해 사용한 패널고정효과모형과 동태적패널회귀모형으로 추정한 결과에서도 동일하게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 방어적전략을 추구하는 기업이 기존 자원의 효율성 제고에 중점을 두고 원가우위와 위험회피성향이 강하지만, 경영자에게 모든 주요 정보가 집중되고 결정되는 의사결정구조를 갖기 때문에 부정적 정보를 은폐할 유인이 높아 주가급락위험이 크다는 가설의 설명력이 높다는 것으로 받아들일 수 있다. 또한 이러한 결과는 급변하는 경영환경 하에서 혁신하지 못하고 기존 사업에 치중하면서 위험을 회피하는 방어적전략이 오히려 기업가치 측면에서 부정적일 수 있음을 시사한다.

Abstract

This study classified the business strategy into aggressive strategy (innovation and risk-seeking), defensive strategy (cost leadership and risk aversion), and analytical strategy (compromised), and analyzed the relationship between these business strategies and stock price crash risk. According to regression analysis(OLS) of non-financial companies listed on stock market, it was found that companies pursuing a defensive strategy had a higher risk of a stock price plunge than companies pursuing an aggressive strategy and an analytical strategy. These results were also found in the results estimated by panel fixed-effect model and dynamic panel regression model used to reduce endogeneity. These results strengthen the hypothesis that there is a high risk of stock price plunge as companies pursuing defensive strategy have a strong cost advantage and hedging tendency, but have a high risk of concealing negative information as they have a decision-making structure in which all key information is concentrated and decided by the executives. In addition, these results suggest that defensive strategy that avoids risks while focusing on existing businesses without innovation under a rapidly changing business environment may be rather negative in terms of corporate value.

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