신안풍력발전소의 증감발 특성 분석
Analysis of Ramp Characteristics of Shinan Wind Power Plant
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초록
A statistical analysis of the power generation records of the Sinan Wind Power Plant located on the coast of Korea on the South Sea was carried out for an overview of ramp characteristics. It was found that up-ramp and down-ramp showed similar patterns such as the same probability of occurrence and ramp rate distribution. The probability of a significant ramp event exceeding 30 % of the nameplate capacity of the wind power plant was 0.6 %, 1.5 %, and 3.3 % for intervals of 1 min, 10 min, and 1 hour, respectively. In a comparative analysis to confirm whether numerical weather prediction can be used for a ramp diagnosis or forecasting, the reliability of the prediction was poor, although the prediction accuracy of wind speed was high at R2=0.72. Therefore, it was confirmed that the accuracy improvement of short-term prediction is an important issue for ramp forecasting using a numerical weather prediction model.
Abstract
A statistical analysis of the power generation records of the Sinan Wind Power Plant located on the coast of Korea on the South Sea was carried out for an overview of ramp characteristics. It was found that up-ramp and down-ramp showed similar patterns such as the same probability of occurrence and ramp rate distribution. The probability of a significant ramp event exceeding 30 % of the nameplate capacity of the wind power plant was 0.6 %, 1.5 %, and 3.3 % for intervals of 1 min, 10 min, and 1 hour, respectively. In a comparative analysis to confirm whether numerical weather prediction can be used for a ramp diagnosis or forecasting, the reliability of the prediction was poor, although the prediction accuracy of wind speed was high at R2=0.72. Therefore, it was confirmed that the accuracy improvement of short-term prediction is an important issue for ramp forecasting using a numerical weather prediction model.
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