공적분분석을 이용한 지역 수출함수의 추정 : 부산지역을 중심으로

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimation Busan’s export function using cointegration analysis, to analyze the effect of exchange rate and world business on local export and to induce policy implication. The major emprical results of the study are as follows: The relation of dollar exchange rate of American to Busan’ export is minus and it means that the rising of exchange rate makes Busan’ export decreased, it is caused that supply elesticity of Busan’ export is less than unit. But the effect of world business on Busan’ export is a positive, and means that ascension of world business gives rise to incresing of Busan’ export. The result of estimation by error correction model says that the effect of exchange rate is negative and world business on export is a positive, but statistical significance did not large . And export was influenced by the former term’s export. Busan’ export is less influenced by exchange rate and world business than is by Busan’ export itself. We can infer that export structure of Busan is insenstive to the flucturation of exchange rate and world business, so it is difficult for us to expect to policy effect from exchange rate and world business