아파트 실거래가와 거래량이 시세에 미치는 영향
The Impact of Real Transaction Price and Transaction Volume on the Surveyed Market Price
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Since real transaction price was announced in January 2006, there have been many studies on the price and relationship with surveyed market price (Sise). The previous researches had provided productive empirical results such as Sise price index smoothing, relationship between price and transaction volume, and causality between two price indices. However, they have limitations in explaining Sise adjustment process reflected by real transaction price and transaction volume. This paper investigates the Sise adjustment process by partial adjustment model. The results are summarized as follows: First, 19.2% of Sise is explained by real transaction price over the last 68 months (from January 2006 to September 2011). Second, the more price gap, the faster adjustment. Sise is adjusted to the real transaction price by 0.087% on the 1% change of the previous month price gap. Third, the higher transaction volume encourages the adjustment process by 0.098% on 1% volume change. The results imply that Sise should be carefully interpreted with price gap and transaction volume, especially during a bust period when transaction volume is squeezed. In addition, reflection rate of real transaction price to Sise is inelastic, so it's necessary to decrease the price gap in order to increase the reliability of Sise.
Abstract
Since real transaction price was announced in January 2006, there have been many studies on the price and relationship with surveyed market price (Sise). The previous researches had provided productive empirical results such as Sise price index smoothing, relationship between price and transaction volume, and causality between two price indices. However, they have limitations in explaining Sise adjustment process reflected by real transaction price and transaction volume. This paper investigates the Sise adjustment process by partial adjustment model. The results are summarized as follows: First, 19.2% of Sise is explained by real transaction price over the last 68 months (from January 2006 to September 2011). Second, the more price gap, the faster adjustment. Sise is adjusted to the real transaction price by 0.087% on the 1% change of the previous month price gap. Third, the higher transaction volume encourages the adjustment process by 0.098% on 1% volume change. The results imply that Sise should be carefully interpreted with price gap and transaction volume, especially during a bust period when transaction volume is squeezed. In addition, reflection rate of real transaction price to Sise is inelastic, so it's necessary to decrease the price gap in order to increase the reliability of Sise.
참고문헌 (15)
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