Geospatial analysis of neonatal mortality in north-eastern India: a multilevel Bayesian approach

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Neonatal mortality remains a significant public health issue in India. This study investigates spatial patterns and contributing factors to neonatal mortality in the north-eastern states, identifying hotspot regions and spatial variations.METHODS: A sample of 34,222 mothers from India’s National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019-21) in the north-eastern states was analysed. Descriptive and bivariate analyses were conducted alongside Bayesian multilevel logistic regression using integrated nested Laplace approximation to model neonatal mortality. Spatial hotspot analysis using Getis-Ord Gi* statistics identified clusters of high neonatal mortality, while geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to examine spatial variations in the relationships between neonatal mortality and contributing factors.RESULTS: The neonatal mortality rate in the north-eastern states declined from 45 to 21 per 1,000 live births (NFHS-1 to NFHS-5) but remains higher than the national average. Assam reported the highest mortality (42.16%), whereas Sikkim had the lowest (0.87%). Higher mortality was observed among male infants, mothers with advanced age, low maternal education, and mothers who attended less than 5 antenatal care (ANC) visits. Spatial analysis identified hotspots in Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura. GWR indicated that areas with less than 5 ANC visits had the strongest association with neonatal mortality. Bayesian multilevel analysis highlighted spatial variations of up to 51% across districts in northeast India.CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores spatial disparities in neonatal mortality across north-eastern India. Addressing childcare practices and healthcare access in hotspot regions is essential for improving new-born health outcomes. The findings provide critical insights for policymakers to develop targeted interventions aimed at reducing neonatal mortality in these underserved areas.